Fog dashboard
latest run 2026-10-19T21:30-05:00 for 2026-10-20
Kankakee / Bourbonnais
D
Unlikely. Sleep unless the refresh changes.
2026-10-20: fog 13 % · shallow ground fog · high confidence
Next 7 mornings (set-up score ranks mornings; day 1 is the calibrated report; full table)| morning | set-up | band | light | T−Td | wind |
|---|
| Tue 20 Oct | 0.56 | marginal | filtered sun | 1.6 | 4 kt |
| Wed 21 Oct | 0.62 | decent set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 2.4 | 4 kt |
| Thu 22 Oct | 0.62 | decent set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 1.0 | 3 kt |
| Fri 23 Oct ★ | 0.70 | decent set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 0.3 | 5 kt |
| Sat 24 Oct | 0.57 | marginal | overcast above the fog | 1.3 | 5 kt |
| Sun 25 Oct | 0.21 | poor | overcast above the fog | 4.5 | 5 kt |
| Mon 26 Oct | 0.28 | poor | overcast above the fog | 3.1 | 6 kt |
line = forecast fog probability (evening runs); dots green = fog observed at the airport, red = no fog, grey = pending
History and verification (9 runs)
| morning | run | p | grade | type | airport vis | airport fog | field | cam |
|---|
| 2026-10-20 | evening | 13 % | D | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | — |
| 2026-10-19 | predawn | 18 % | C | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-19 | evening | 12 % | D | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-18 | predawn | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-18 | evening | 3 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-17 | predawn | 6 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-17 | evening | 3 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-16 | predawn | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | no fog | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-16 | evening | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | no fog | frame frame frame |
Grayslake / Lake County
B
Worth the alarm.
2026-10-20: fog 26 % · deep fog bank · low confidence
Next 7 mornings (set-up score ranks mornings; day 1 is the calibrated report; full table)| morning | set-up | band | light | T−Td | wind |
|---|
| Tue 20 Oct | 0.70 | decent set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 0.0 | 2 kt |
| Wed 21 Oct | 0.69 | decent set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 0.0 | 1 kt |
| Thu 22 Oct | 0.65 | decent set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 0.9 | 4 kt |
| Fri 23 Oct ★ | 0.69 | decent set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 1.3 | 3 kt |
| Sat 24 Oct | 0.49 | marginal | overcast above the fog | 1.5 | 5 kt |
| Sun 25 Oct | 0.19 | poor | overcast above the fog | 4.6 | 6 kt |
| Mon 26 Oct | 0.31 | poor | overcast above the fog | 2.6 | 7 kt |
line = forecast fog probability (evening runs); dots green = fog observed at the airport, red = no fog, grey = pending
History and verification (9 runs)
| morning | run | p | grade | type | airport vis | airport fog | field | cam |
|---|
| 2026-10-20 | evening | 26 % | B | deep fog bank | — | pending | — | — |
| 2026-10-19 | predawn | 12 % | D | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-19 | evening | 11 % | D | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-18 | predawn | 2 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-18 | evening | 3 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-17 | predawn | 7 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-17 | evening | 6 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-16 | predawn | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 6.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-16 | evening | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 6.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
Porcupine Mountains / Lake Superior
F
No fog morning.
2026-10-20: fog 1 % · shallow ground fog · low confidence
Next 7 mornings (set-up score ranks mornings; day 1 is the calibrated report; full table)| morning | set-up | band | light | T−Td | wind |
|---|
| Tue 20 Oct | 0.23 | poor | sun will reach the fog top | 10.8 | 11 kt |
| Wed 21 Oct | 0.12 | poor | overcast above the fog | 8.8 | 11 kt |
| Thu 22 Oct ★ | 0.80 | strong set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 0.0 | 2 kt |
| Fri 23 Oct | 0.42 | poor | overcast above the fog | 1.9 | 7 kt |
| Sat 24 Oct | 0.01 | poor | overcast above the fog | 4.3 | 12 kt |
| Sun 25 Oct | 0.13 | poor | overcast above the fog | 0.1 | 9 kt |
| Mon 26 Oct | 0.29 | poor | sun will reach the fog top | 1.7 | 6 kt |
line = forecast fog probability (evening runs); dots green = fog observed at the airport, red = no fog, grey = pending
History and verification (8 runs)
| morning | run | p | grade | type | airport vis | airport fog | field | cam |
|---|
| 2026-10-20 | evening | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | — |
| 2026-10-19 | predawn | 2 % | F | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-19 | evening | 3 % | F | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-18 | predawn | 0 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-18 | evening | 0 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-17 | predawn | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-17 | evening | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-16 | predawn | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 2.5 | no | — | frame frame frame |
Chicago / Lake Michigan
B
Worth the alarm.
2026-10-20: fog 26 % · deep fog bank · low confidence
Next 7 mornings (set-up score ranks mornings; day 1 is the calibrated report; full table)| morning | set-up | band | light | T−Td | wind |
|---|
| Tue 20 Oct | 0.69 | decent set-up | sun will reach the fog top | 0.0 | 2 kt |
| Wed 21 Oct ★ | 0.59 | marginal | sun will reach the fog top | 0.3 | 2 kt |
| Thu 22 Oct | 0.49 | marginal | sun will reach the fog top | 1.9 | 4 kt |
| Fri 23 Oct | 0.58 | marginal | sun will reach the fog top | 1.3 | 4 kt |
| Sat 24 Oct | 0.44 | poor | overcast above the fog | 2.0 | 5 kt |
| Sun 25 Oct | 0.19 | poor | overcast above the fog | 5.0 | 5 kt |
| Mon 26 Oct | 0.20 | poor | overcast above the fog | 2.8 | 6 kt |
line = forecast fog probability (evening runs); dots green = fog observed at the airport, red = no fog, grey = pending
History and verification (8 runs)
| morning | run | p | grade | type | airport vis | airport fog | field | cam |
|---|
| 2026-10-20 | evening | 26 % | B | deep fog bank | — | pending | — | — |
| 2026-10-19 | predawn | 7 % | F | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-19 | evening | 4 % | F | shallow ground fog | — | pending | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-18 | predawn | 2 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-18 | evening | 2 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-17 | predawn | 2 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-17 | evening | 2 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
| 2026-10-16 | predawn | 1 % | F | shallow ground fog | 10.0 | no | — | frame frame frame |
Backtest: 329 station-mornings, 34 fog events · AUC 0.761 · Brier calibrated 0.084 vs climatology 0.093 ·
details
fog mechanics guide · Kankakee location evidence · Grayslake location evidence · backtest
