dashboard tonight 7-day · Grayslake / Lake County

Fog forecast — Tuesday 20 October

run 2026-10-19T21:30-05:00 · times in America/Chicago
grade
B
Worth the alarm.
P(fog) home
26 %
low confidence
sunrise
07:11
103.5° ESE · civil dawn 06:42
beams 2°–12°
07:25–08:25
burn-off 09:11–10:41 est.
at sunrise
41°F
5.0 °C · wind 0 kt (HRRR)

Reading

deep fog bank · 20–80 m (estimate)saturated for 2 h before sunrise with 2.2 kt of wind to stir the layer upward — enough time and mixing to bury tree lines; only the tallest crowns will poke out.Light: sun will reach the fog top (mid+high cloud at sunrise ≈ 0 %).HRRR profile at KUGN 07:00 (run 2026-10-19 19:00): saturated (T−Td ≤ 1 °C) up to 8 m AGL, temperature change 10 m → 80 m: +4.1 °C (inversion) — saturated only at the lowest level; a layer tens of metres deep at mostRiver steam fog likely: river water +9.2 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 2 kt)models disagree (spread 0.41); treat the number as a coin-flip and check the 04:45 refresh.

Sites, best first

sitefoggradelightdrivedrone
HeatherRidge Golf Course29 %Bsun will reach the fog top12unknown
Pine Meadow Golf Club29 %Bsun will reach the fog top13unknown
Merit Club29 %Bsun will reach the fog top14unknown
Gages Lake29 %Bsun will reach the fog top9unknown
Grayslake Golf Course28 %Bsun will reach the fog top7unknown
Bittersweet Golf Club28 %Bsun will reach the fog top11unknown
Almond Marsh Forest Preserve28 %Bsun will reach the fog top9permit
Village Green Country Club27 %Bsun will reach the fog top8unknown
sitefoggradetypelightsunrisedrivedrone
HeatherRidge Golf Course29 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:10 · 103.5°12unknown
Pine Meadow Golf Club29 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:10 · 103.5°13unknown
Merit Club29 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:10 · 103.5°14unknown
Gages Lake29 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:10 · 103.5°9unknown
Grayslake Golf Course28 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°7unknown
Bittersweet Golf Club28 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°11unknown
Almond Marsh Forest Preserve28 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:10 · 103.5°9permit
Village Green Country Club27 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.4°8unknown
Ivanhoe Club27 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.4°13unknown
Lakewood Forest Preserve27 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.4°14permit
Grayslake (village center)26 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°—unknown
Renwood Golf Course26 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°7unknown
Steeple Chase Golf Club26 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.4°15unknown
Stonewall Orchard Golf Club26 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°18unknown
Rollins Savanna Forest Preserve26 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°7permit
Third Lake26 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°11unknown
Fourth Lake26 %Bpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°14unknown
Brae Loch Golf Club25 %Bdeep fog banksun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°8permit
Volo Bog State Natural Area25 %Cpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°19permit
Chain O'Lakes State Park18 %Cpatchy fog, deepening in low groundsun will reach the fog top07:11 · 103.5°30permit
Hickory Knoll Golf Course17 %Dpatchy fog, deepening in low groundfiltered sun07:11 · 103.5°14unknown
Grant Woods Forest Preserve17 %Dpatchy fog, deepening in low groundfiltered sun07:11 · 103.5°15permit
HeatherRidge Golf Course — 29 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3484, -87.9524 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurespond, stream, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. OSM-listed site heatherridgegolf.com served an unrelated spam page on 2026-10-16. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 1.8 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 1.4 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. Edge of KUGN Class D at about 1.8 nm; re-check at launch point. notesOperating status and management from search-result summaries (GolfNow, Visit Lake County), no official page reached. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:41, sunrise 07:10 at 103.5°, beams 07:24–08:24, burn-off 08:10–09:10 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.9 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.1 °C
  • moisture: 1.00 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.6 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 8.6 °C → -3.0 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (2 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 1.0, ncep_nbm_conus 0.826, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.527 · spread 0.473

Pine Meadow Golf Club — 29 %, deep fog bank
where42.2901, -87.9886 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurespond, wetland, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 5.6 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 5.0 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesMundelein/Libertyville line. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:41, sunrise 07:10 at 103.5°, beams 07:24–08:24, burn-off 09:10–10:40 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.3 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.95 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 7.6 °C
  • moisture: 0.66 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.6 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 5.5 °C → +1.1 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.96, ncep_nbm_conus 0.831, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.641 · spread 0.334

Merit Club — 29 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3350, -87.9596 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurespond, wetland, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 2.6 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 2.1 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesCourse hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:41, sunrise 07:10 at 103.5°, beams 07:24–08:24, burn-off 08:10–09:10 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.9 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.1 °C
  • moisture: 1.00 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.6 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 8.6 °C → -3.0 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (2 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 1.0, ncep_nbm_conus 0.826, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.527 · spread 0.473

Gages Lake — 29 %, deep fog bank
where42.3535, -87.9820 · map lookNo public-access page, boat launch or shoreline park was identified, so this is a view-from-elsewhere candidate only. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. featureslakeaccessNone droneunknown — No rule found; no managing agency identified. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 2.5 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 2.2 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesNo public-access page, boat launch or shoreline park was identified, so this is a view-from-elsewhere candidate only. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:41, sunrise 07:10 at 103.5°, beams 07:24–08:24, burn-off 09:10–10:40 est. riverriver water +8.1 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 2 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.96 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 7.7 °C
  • moisture: 1.00 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.1 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 7.5 °C → -1.4 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.996, ncep_nbm_conus 0.828, ecmwf_ifs025 0.64, icon_seamless 0.53 · spread 0.466

Grayslake Golf Course — 28 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3756, -88.0346 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featureswetland, pond, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. Policies page (grayslakegolfcourse.com/policies) covers carts, minors and errant balls only. 620 ILCS 5/42.1(b-5) (per ticket C research) lets a local government adopt reasonable rules over its own recreation land; none located. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 3.9 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 3.5 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesCourse is not mapped as a golf_course polygon in OSM, so the coordinate is the road geocode. The only 'protected wetlands' claim is from a search summary of GolfAdvisor, not used. Walking-only course, 1,200 yards, address 2150 Drury Lane 60030. Same street name as Rollins Savanna's Drury Lane lot (Visit Lake County page); adjacency not verified. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.8 °C
  • moisture: 0.44 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.7 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.8 °C → +1.9 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (2 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.945, ncep_nbm_conus 0.828, ecmwf_ifs025 0.695, icon_seamless 0.529 · spread 0.416

Bittersweet Golf Club — 28 %, deep fog bank
where42.3723, -87.9800 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurespond, wetland, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. 620 ILCS 5/42.1(b-5) (per ticket C research) lets a local government adopt reasonable rules over its own recreation land; none located. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 1.8 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 1.5 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. CLOSEST to KUGN of the golf courses: 1.8 nm from the Class D edge at the geocoded point; the course is large, so check the actual launch point. notesMost water of any course in OSM (17 polygons). Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:41, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 09:11–10:41 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.96 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 7.7 °C
  • moisture: 1.00 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.1 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 7.5 °C → -1.5 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.996, ncep_nbm_conus 0.827, ecmwf_ifs025 0.625, icon_seamless 0.527 · spread 0.469

Almond Marsh Forest Preserve — 28 %, deep fog bank
where42.3303, -87.9857 · map lookmarsh and savanna fog from the ground at 6:30 opening; drone needs a Lake County Forest Preserves permit featuresmarsh, sedge meadow, savanna, wetland, oak woodlandaccess"Hours: 6:30 am-sunset, daily." (LCFP page, Wayback copy 2025-07-17); Visit Lake County: "Open daily 6:30 a.m.-sunset." But Visit Lake County says: "Parking, trails and facilities are not available at this site. Parking along Almond Road can be dangerous due to poor sight lines and fast moving traffic." dronepermit — LCFP Regulations Governing the General Use of District Property (approved Jan 14 2020, amended Jan 17 2024), Sec. III.A: "No person shall use District Property for any of the following uses, unless the person has first obtained, and has physical possession of, a Permit allowing such use"; item (v): "use of any fuel-powered, air-propulsion, electric powered, radio-controlled, or cellular-controlled unmanned aerial Vehicle (commonly referred to as a \"drone\"), model or toy car, aircraft, boat or rocket, or any similar toy or model"; item (xx): "taking any still or motion pictures ... for commercial purposes or for use in commercial advertising". LCFP's fee ordinance lists a 'Commercial Photography, Film or Video Permit'. Read from a Wayback copy (2024-02-25) because lcfpd.org returns a Cloudflare 403 to scripted fetches. No drone-specific permit procedure found; the model-aircraft page (archived 2026-02-15) offers only the Van Patten Woods field. A 2014 staff memo, seen only as a search-result excerpt, said drones may not launch or land elsewhere in the preserves. source airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 3.6 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 3.2 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesBest cold-pool terrain on the list but no parking: roadside only. Nature-preserve portion may carry extra INPC rules (not researched). Sunrise at Grayslake is about 7:08-7:15 am CDT on Oct 19-25 2026 (my NOAA-formula estimate, +/-2 min); clocks fall back Nov 1 (sunrise then ~6:24 CST). Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:41, sunrise 07:10 at 103.5°, beams 07:24–08:24, burn-off 09:10–10:40 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.5 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.96 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 7.7 °C
  • moisture: 1.00 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.2 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 6.9 °C → -0.7 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.996, ncep_nbm_conus 0.828, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.53 · spread 0.466

Village Green Country Club — 27 %, deep fog bank
where42.2984, -88.0186 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurespond, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. Official site not reached (villagegreencc.com failed to connect). airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 6.0 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 5.5 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesPublic status comes only from search-result summaries of GolfPass/OpenGolfAPI, not an official page. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.4°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 09:11–10:41 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.99 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.9 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.96 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 7.7 °C
  • moisture: 0.27 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.7 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.9 °C → +2.9 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.921, ncep_nbm_conus 0.832, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.629 · spread 0.295

Ivanhoe Club — 27 %, deep fog bank
where42.2812, -88.0643 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurescreek, pond, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 8.0 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 7.6 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesPrivate members' club, Mundelein. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.4°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 09:11–10:41 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.0 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.9 °C
  • moisture: 0.39 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.8 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.7 °C → +2.1 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.939, ncep_nbm_conus 0.835, ecmwf_ifs025 0.628, icon_seamless 0.579 · spread 0.36

Lakewood Forest Preserve — 27 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.2600, -88.0862 · map lookmarsh and savanna fog from the ground at 6:30 opening; drone needs a Lake County Forest Preserves permit featuresbog, marsh, wetland, pond, oak woodlandaccessLCFP banner (archived pages): "Most preserves open 6:30 am-sunset." Lakewood's own page seen only as a search-result excerpt: 6:30 a.m. to sunset daily; portions closed for construction (not verified). dronepermit — LCFP Regulations Governing the General Use of District Property (approved Jan 14 2020, amended Jan 17 2024), Sec. III.A: "No person shall use District Property for any of the following uses, unless the person has first obtained, and has physical possession of, a Permit allowing such use"; item (v): "use of any fuel-powered, air-propulsion, electric powered, radio-controlled, or cellular-controlled unmanned aerial Vehicle (commonly referred to as a \"drone\"), model or toy car, aircraft, boat or rocket, or any similar toy or model"; item (xx): "taking any still or motion pictures ... for commercial purposes or for use in commercial advertising". LCFP's fee ordinance lists a 'Commercial Photography, Film or Video Permit'. Read from a Wayback copy (2024-02-25) because lcfpd.org returns a Cloudflare 403 to scripted fetches. No drone-specific permit procedure found; the model-aircraft page (archived 2026-02-15) offers only the Van Patten Woods field. A 2014 staff memo, seen only as a search-result excerpt, said drones may not launch or land elsewhere in the preserves. source airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 9.7 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 9.3 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesAcreage conflicts in excerpts (2,835 vs 2,996). Wayback copy of the Lakewood page was not the preserve page, so hours/features rest on excerpts. Sunrise at Grayslake is about 7:08-7:15 am CDT on Oct 19-25 2026 (my NOAA-formula estimate, +/-2 min); clocks fall back Nov 1 (sunrise then ~6:24 CST). Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.4°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.98 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.8 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.4 °C
  • moisture: 0.36 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.3 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 4.0 °C → +2.3 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (2 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.932, ncep_nbm_conus 0.835, ecmwf_ifs025 0.625, icon_seamless 0.58 · spread 0.352

Grayslake (village center) — 26 %, deep fog bank
where42.3434, -88.0412 · map featureslakes, wetland, golfaccessnot verified droneunknown — no rule found notesVillage center from OpenStreetMap Nominatim (42.3433518, -88.0412192), fetched 16 Oct 2026 suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 09:11–10:41 est. riverriver water +9.2 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 2 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 10.3 °C
  • moisture: 0.40 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.0 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.0 °C → +2.0 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.94, ncep_nbm_conus 0.83, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.529 · spread 0.411

Renwood Golf Course — 26 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3708, -88.0645 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurespond, stream, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. 620 ILCS 5/42.1(b-5) (per ticket C research) lets a local government adopt reasonable rules over its own recreation land; none located. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 5.3 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 4.9 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesRound Lake Beach mailing address, touches the west edge of Grayslake. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.5 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 9.3 °C
  • moisture: 0.22 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.6 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 2.4 °C → +3.2 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.1 km (2 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.922, ncep_nbm_conus 0.831, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.556 · spread 0.366

Steeple Chase Golf Club — 26 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.2626, -88.0537 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurespond, wetland, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. 620 ILCS 5/42.1(b-5) (per ticket C research) lets a local government adopt reasonable rules over its own recreation land; none located. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 8.7 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 8.1 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesEdge of the 15-minute limit (OSRM 14.6 min). Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.4°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.98 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.8 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.4 °C
  • moisture: 0.36 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.3 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 4.0 °C → +2.3 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (2 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.932, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.629 · spread 0.306

Stonewall Orchard Golf Club — 26 %, deep fog bank
where42.3121, -88.1274 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featureswetland, pond, rolling hills, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 9.3 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 8.9 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesOVER the 15-minute limit (OSRM 18.3 min) but kept because it has a Grayslake 60030 address. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 09:11–10:41 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.0 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 9.4 °C
  • moisture: 0.41 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.2 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.2 °C → +2.0 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.942, ncep_nbm_conus 0.834, ecmwf_ifs025 0.554, icon_seamless 0.58 · spread 0.388

Rollins Savanna Forest Preserve — 26 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3732, -88.0289 · map lookmarsh and savanna fog from the ground at 6:30 opening; drone needs a Lake County Forest Preserves permit featureswetland, savanna, prairie, oak grove, marsh, streamaccess"Hours: 6:30 am-sunset, daily." (lcfpd.org page, Wayback copy 2025-09-14; live page Cloudflare-blocked). Banner: "Most preserves open 6:30 am-sunset." dronepermit — LCFP Regulations Governing the General Use of District Property (approved Jan 14 2020, amended Jan 17 2024), Sec. III.A: "No person shall use District Property for any of the following uses, unless the person has first obtained, and has physical possession of, a Permit allowing such use"; item (v): "use of any fuel-powered, air-propulsion, electric powered, radio-controlled, or cellular-controlled unmanned aerial Vehicle (commonly referred to as a \"drone\"), model or toy car, aircraft, boat or rocket, or any similar toy or model"; item (xx): "taking any still or motion pictures ... for commercial purposes or for use in commercial advertising". LCFP's fee ordinance lists a 'Commercial Photography, Film or Video Permit'. Read from a Wayback copy (2024-02-25) because lcfpd.org returns a Cloudflare 403 to scripted fetches. No drone-specific permit procedure found; the model-aircraft page (archived 2026-02-15) offers only the Van Patten Woods field. A 2014 staff memo, seen only as a search-result excerpt, said drones may not launch or land elsewhere in the preserves. source airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 3.7 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 3.3 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesOpens 6:30 am, before sunrise (~7:10). Sunrise at Grayslake is about 7:08-7:15 am CDT on Oct 19-25 2026 (my NOAA-formula estimate, +/-2 min); clocks fall back Nov 1 (sunrise then ~6:24 CST). Drive time is an OSRM estimate to the centroid. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.9 °C
  • moisture: 0.44 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.7 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.8 °C → +1.9 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (2 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.945, ncep_nbm_conus 0.828, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.532 · spread 0.413

Third Lake — 26 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3739, -88.0109 · map lookNo public-access page, boat launch or shoreline park was identified, so this is a view-from-elsewhere candidate only. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. featureslakeaccessNone droneunknown — No rule found; no managing agency identified. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 3.0 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 2.6 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesNo public-access page, boat launch or shoreline park was identified, so this is a view-from-elsewhere candidate only. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. riverriver water +8.5 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 2 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.8 °C
  • moisture: 0.44 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.7 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.8 °C → +1.9 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (2 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.945, ncep_nbm_conus 0.828, ecmwf_ifs025 0.628, icon_seamless 0.53 · spread 0.415

Fourth Lake — 26 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3913, -88.0334 · map lookNo public-access page, boat launch or shoreline park was identified, so this is a view-from-elsewhere candidate only. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. featureslakeaccessNone droneunknown — No rule found; no managing agency identified. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 3.6 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 3.3 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. notesNo public-access page, boat launch or shoreline park was identified, so this is a view-from-elsewhere candidate only. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. riverriver water +8.4 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 2 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.85 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.5 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.7 °C
  • moisture: 0.52 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.8 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 4.2 °C → +1.6 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (1 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.907, ncep_nbm_conus 0.828, ecmwf_ifs025 0.694, icon_seamless 0.527 · spread 0.38

Brae Loch Golf Club — 25 %, deep fog bank
where42.3491, -88.0092 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featurespond, mature trees, gentle rolling terrain, golfaccessNone dronepermit — LCFP Regulations Governing the General Use of District Property (approved Jan 14 2020, amended Jan 17 2024), Sec. III.A: "No person shall use District Property for any of the following uses, unless the person has first obtained, and has physical possession of, a Permit allowing such use"; item (v): "use of any fuel-powered, air-propulsion, electric powered, radio-controlled, or cellular-controlled unmanned aerial Vehicle (commonly referred to as a \"drone\"), model or toy car, aircraft, boat or rocket, or any similar toy or model"; item (xx): "taking any still or motion pictures ... for commercial purposes or for use in commercial advertising". LCFP's fee ordinance lists a 'Commercial Photography, Film or Video Permit'. Read from a Wayback copy (2024-02-25) because lcfpd.org returns a Cloudflare 403 to scripted fetches. No drone-specific permit procedure found; the model-aircraft page (archived 2026-02-15) offers only the Van Patten Woods field. A 2014 staff memo, seen only as a search-result excerpt, said drones may not launch or land elsewhere in the preserves. source airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Chicago Class B shelf above, floor 3,600 ft MSL (about 2,800 ft above ground); Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 3.7 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 3.3 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. Closest golf course to KUGN's boundary after Bittersweet/Heather Ridge/Merit. notesOWNERSHIP CORRECTION: the ticket listed Brae Loch under Lake County Forest Preserves and the course site confirms it (header 'Lake County Forest Preserves'; FAQ says 'all three Lake County Forest Preserves courses'). That makes it District Property, so the LCFP drone-permit rule applies on top of any owner consent. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 09:11–10:41 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 1.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.98 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.8 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 8.8 °C
  • moisture: 0.29 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.0 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.3 °C → +2.7 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.0 km (3 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.925, ncep_nbm_conus 0.828, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.527 · spread 0.398

Volo Bog State Natural Area — 25 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3510, -88.1890 · map lookDeer archery hunting at Volo Bog is held in the fall (IDNR activities page); no drones for any aspect of hunting (520 ILCS 5/2.33(i)). Sunrise at Grayslake is about 7:08-7:15 am CDT on Oct 19-25 2026 (my NOAA-formula estimate, +/-2 min); clocks fall back Nov 1 (sunrise then ~6:24 CST). Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. featuresbog, marsh, prairie, woodlandaccessIDNR about page: "Site Hours: Gates open at 8:00 am 363 days a year-closed on Christmas and New Year's Days. Closing time is posted as one enters the parking lot ... plan to be back to the parking lot no later than 30 minutes before sunset." Gates open about 1 hr after sunrise. dronepermit — 17 Ill. Adm. Code 110.160(i): it is unlawful "Except in cases of emergency, for any person to land or attempt to land any aircraft on Department-owned, -leased or -managed property without prior authorization for each landing or attempted landing from the Department." (verified at ilga.gov 2026-10-16). No site-specific drone page found. Wording says 'aircraft', not 'drone', and does not name the superintendent; treat as authorization required until the site office says otherwise. source airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Not under the Class B shelf; Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 10.9 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 10.5 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. Beyond the Class B shelf at this point. notesDeer archery hunting at Volo Bog is held in the fall (IDNR activities page); no drones for any aspect of hunting (520 ILCS 5/2.33(i)). Sunrise at Grayslake is about 7:08-7:15 am CDT on Oct 19-25 2026 (my NOAA-formula estimate, +/-2 min); clocks fall back Nov 1 (sunrise then ~6:24 CST). Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.80 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.1 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.0 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 9.9 °C
  • moisture: 0.62 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.2 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 3.9 °C → +1.3 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 1.00 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 0.3 km (1 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.902, ncep_nbm_conus 0.834, ecmwf_ifs025 0.554, icon_seamless 0.635 · spread 0.348

Chain O'Lakes State Park — 18 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.4670, -88.1890 · map lookOUTSIDE the 20-minute target (OSRM 29.6 min); kept because the ticket asked for it. Dawn access is undecided: summer hours (gate open from 6:00 am) apply until 'the last weekend in October', which falls on Oct 24-25 or Oct 31-Nov 1 depending on reading, and then the park closes entirely for hunting. Next-week dates are at risk. Sunrise at Grayslake is about 7:08-7:15 am CDT on Oct 19-25 2026 (my NOAA-formula estimate, +/-2 min); clocks fall back Nov 1 (sunrise then ~6:24 CST). Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. featureslake, river, marsh, backwateraccessIDNR: "Summer hours 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Winter hours: 8:00 a.m. to sunset. Summer hours take effect April 1st and terminate the last weekend in October when hunting begins and the entire park is closed for hunting. Hunting is by registration only. Entrance gates will be locked from 10:00 pm to 6:00 am during summer hours and sunset to 8 am during winter hours." dronepermit — 17 Ill. Adm. Code 110.160(i): it is unlawful "Except in cases of emergency, for any person to land or attempt to land any aircraft on Department-owned, -leased or -managed property without prior authorization for each landing or attempted landing from the Department." (verified at ilga.gov 2026-10-16). No site-specific drone page found. Wording says 'aircraft', not 'drone', and does not name the superintendent; treat as authorization required until the site office says otherwise. source airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Not under the Class B shelf; Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; outside the O'Hare Mode C veil; surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 10.5 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 10.3 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. OUTSIDE the O'Hare Mode C veil here (32 nm from ORD). notesOUTSIDE the 20-minute target (OSRM 29.6 min); kept because the ticket asked for it. Dawn access is undecided: summer hours (gate open from 6:00 am) apply until 'the last weekend in October', which falls on Oct 24-25 or Oct 31-Nov 1 depending on reading, and then the park closes entirely for hunting. Next-week dates are at risk. Sunrise at Grayslake is about 7:08-7:15 am CDT on Oct 19-25 2026 (my NOAA-formula estimate, +/-2 min); clocks fall back Nov 1 (sunrise then ~6:24 CST). Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. riverriver water +8.4 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 3 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.33 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.3 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.5 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 9.5 °C
  • moisture: 0.78 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.8 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 5.1 °C → +0.7 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 12.4 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.64, ncep_nbm_conus 0.835, ecmwf_ifs025 0.62, icon_seamless 0.759 · spread 0.215

Hickory Knoll Golf Course — 17 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.3990, -88.1155 · map lookfairway fog over ponds and tree lines at sunrise; drone from the course if this is the client's (owner's permission settled); Class G at the surface, no LAANC featureshilly terrain, golfaccessNone droneunknown — No drone rule found on the pages reached. airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Not under the Class B shelf; Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 7.1 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 7.0 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. Beyond the Class B shelf at this point (no Class B polygon). notesWeakest fog candidate of the courses: no water, above its ring. Course hours not found on the pages reached. Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.52 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.7 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.8 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 9.5 °C
  • moisture: 0.28 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.5 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 2.7 °C → +2.8 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 12.2 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.649, ncep_nbm_conus 0.831, ecmwf_ifs025 0.695, icon_seamless 0.556 · spread 0.275

Grant Woods Forest Preserve — 17 %, patchy fog, deepening in low ground
where42.4115, -88.1181 · map lookmarsh and savanna fog from the ground at 6:30 opening; drone needs a Lake County Forest Preserves permit featuresmarsh, prairie, woodland, bog, pondaccess"Hours: 6:30 am-sunset, daily." (LCFP page, Wayback copy 2025-09-14) dronepermit — LCFP Regulations Governing the General Use of District Property (approved Jan 14 2020, amended Jan 17 2024), Sec. III.A: "No person shall use District Property for any of the following uses, unless the person has first obtained, and has physical possession of, a Permit allowing such use"; item (v): "use of any fuel-powered, air-propulsion, electric powered, radio-controlled, or cellular-controlled unmanned aerial Vehicle (commonly referred to as a \"drone\"), model or toy car, aircraft, boat or rocket, or any similar toy or model"; item (xx): "taking any still or motion pictures ... for commercial purposes or for use in commercial advertising". LCFP's fee ordinance lists a 'Commercial Photography, Film or Video Permit'. Read from a Wayback copy (2024-02-25) because lcfpd.org returns a Cloudflare 403 to scripted fetches. No drone-specific permit procedure found; the model-aircraft page (archived 2026-02-15) offers only the Van Patten Woods field. A 2014 staff memo, seen only as a search-result excerpt, said drones may not launch or land elsewhere in the preserves. source airspaceFAA Class_Airspace + UAS Facility Map query 2026-10-16 at the geocoded point: Not under the Class B shelf; Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) and Illinois Class E5; inside the O'Hare Mode C veil (surface-10,000 ft MSL); surface is Class G. Not inside KUGN Class D or its Class E2 surface area (boundary about 7.1 nm away); no UAS Facility Map grid at the point (nearest KUGN grid about 7.1 nm, ceiling 400 ft), so no LAANC needed at 400 ft AGL or below. Not in any TFR (none in IL/WI/IN on the live list) or national-security restriction (FAA 99.7 list has no Lake County IL entry). Distances are from the geocoded point, +/-0.3 nm: re-check at the real launch point in B4UFLY/Aloft. Beyond the Class B shelf at this point. notesLCFP fall hunting or deer-management closures were not researched. Sunrise at Grayslake is about 7:08-7:15 am CDT on Oct 19-25 2026 (my NOAA-formula estimate, +/-2 min); clocks fall back Nov 1 (sunrise then ~6:24 CST). Drive time is an OSRM public-router estimate from Grayslake centre (42.3447,-88.0418), not a measurement. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:11 at 103.5°, beams 07:25–08:25, burn-off 08:11–09:11 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.56 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.6 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.8 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 9.6 °C
  • moisture: 0.28 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.5 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 2.7 °C → +2.8 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 12.2 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.661, ncep_nbm_conus 0.83, ecmwf_ifs025 0.694, icon_seamless 0.548 · spread 0.282

Next 7 mornings

morningset-upbandlightT−Tdwind
Tue 20 Oct0.70decent set-upsun will reach the fog top0.02 kt
Wed 21 Oct0.69decent set-upsun will reach the fog top0.01 kt
Thu 22 Oct0.65decent set-upsun will reach the fog top0.94 kt
Fri 23 Oct ★0.69decent set-upsun will reach the fog top1.33 kt
Sat 24 Oct0.49marginalovercast above the fog1.55 kt
Sun 25 Oct0.19poorovercast above the fog4.66 kt
Mon 26 Oct0.31poorovercast above the fog2.67 kt
morningset-upbandtypelightT−Td minwindmid+high cloudsunrisemodels
Tue 20 Oct0.70decent set-updeep fog banksun will reach the fog top0.0 °C2.2 kt0 %07:11 · 103.5°5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.82
Wed 21 Oct0.69decent set-updeep fog banksun will reach the fog top0.0 °C1.0 kt0 %07:12 · 103.9°5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.86
Thu 22 Oct0.65decent set-upshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top0.9 °C3.8 kt0 %07:13 · 104.4°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.70
Fri 23 Oct ★0.69decent set-upshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top1.3 °C3.2 kt0 %07:14 · 104.9°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.84
Sat 24 Oct0.49marginalshallow ground fogovercast above the fog1.5 °C4.8 kt74 %07:15 · 105.4°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.62
Sun 25 Oct0.19poorshallow ground fogovercast above the fog4.6 °C5.9 kt100 %07:17 · 105.9°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.49
Mon 26 Oct0.31poorshallow ground fogovercast above the fog2.6 °C6.7 kt100 %07:18 · 106.3°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.34

outlook page with drivers and lead skill

Factors (HRRR, home)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.94, ncep_nbm_conus 0.83, ecmwf_ifs025 0.626, icon_seamless 0.529 · spread 0.411

Hourly, HRRR

localTTdT−Tdktlowmidhighvis km
21:0010.75.55.23.800022.7
22:009.95.24.71.400021.3
23:009.45.24.22.800020.1
00:009.05.04.04.310019.5
01:008.94.74.24.110019.4
02:008.44.93.53.700015.6
03:007.85.32.53.780012.8
04:007.35.51.84.6430012.2
05:006.85.61.23.3100000.1
06:005.95.90.00.710000—
07:005.05.00.00.4100000.1
08:006.26.20.00.210000—
09:009.99.50.41.5930012.2
10:0014.49.84.61.9430020.3
11:0016.87.79.13.100033.1

Independent checks

NBM bulletin for KUGN (cycle 2026-10-20T01:00:00+00:00, NOAA's own blend)

local°FTdktskyvis miP(vis<1)P(vis<3)cig
03:00464401810.05 %7 %-88
04:00464402710.05 %8 %-88
05:00464402710.06 %9 %-88
06:0045440219.06 %9 %-88
07:0045440259.06 %10 %-88
08:0048450319.06 %10 %-88
09:00544702910.05 %9 %-88

HRRR vertical profile at KUGN (run 2026-10-19 19:00; saturated depth = height to which T−Td ≤ 1 °C)

localsat. depthΔT 10→80 mlowest levels (m: T / Td)
03:000 m3.1 °C9: 11.0/9.7 · 33: 13.5/10.4 · 80: 14.1/9.5 · 161: 13.8/7.3
04:000 m3.4 °C8: 10.7/9.6 · 33: 13.4/10.4 · 80: 14.1/9.6 · 160: 13.7/9.0
05:000 m3.0 °C9: 11.2/9.6 · 34: 13.6/9.8 · 80: 14.2/9.3 · 161: 13.7/8.6
06:000 m2.8 °C8: 10.9/9.7 · 33: 13.1/10.3 · 80: 13.7/10.6 · 160: 13.4/9.9
07:008 m4.1 °C8: 9.5/9.0 · 33: 12.7/10.4 · 80: 13.6/10.1 · 160: 13.4/9.2
08:008 m6.3 °C8: 7.1/7.0 · 33: 12.2/10.5 · 79: 13.4/9.3 · 159: 13.3/8.7
09:0034 m5.0 °C8: 8.3/8.2 · 34: 9.4/9.3 · 79: 13.3/9.2 · 160: 13.2/7.9

Right now at KUGN

METAR KUGN 200151Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 07/07 A3036 RMK AO2 SLP285 T00720072

Observed T−Td 0.0 °C vs HRRR for this hour 5.2 °C.

Rivers (USGS)

NWS forecast discussion 2026-10-19T23:15:00+00:00

- Shallow fog may develop in northeastern Illinois early Tuesday morning. Any fog would dissipate a few hours after sunrise.
The only item of note is a threat for shallow fog overnight into tomorrow morning near Lake Michigan where a modestly more moist environment will advect inland. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected the next 7 days with above to much above average temperatures each day. Generally light winds should allow weak lake breezes to form each of the next several afternoons, but probably only result in slightly cooler conditions right near the lake. Other than a bit of mid-high level cloudiness this afternoon, much of the week looks to be mostly sunny.
Light and variable winds (at times prevailing out of the east) will prevail through the TAF period. Shallow ground fog may develop in the vicinity of ORD/MDW early tomorrow morning (08-13Z timeframe). We have maintained the targeted TEMPO group for 1 1/2SM BR introduced in the 18z tafs. Otherwise, there are no aviation concerns through the TAF period.

Were you out there?

One tap at dawn. This is the only truth the tool gets from the field; the airport sensor cannot see a river bottom.

Verification so far

morningrunforecastgradeairport visairport fog?field reportcam
2026-10-16evening1 %F6.0 mino—frame frame frame
2026-10-16predawn1 %F6.0 mino—frame frame frame
2026-10-17evening6 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-17predawn7 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-18evening3 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-18predawn2 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-19evening11 %D—pending—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-19predawn12 %D—pending—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-20evening26 %B—pending——

Honesty notes

dashboard · 7-day outlook · raw json