7-day fog outlook — Porcupine Mountains / Lake Superior
run 2026-10-19T22:30-04:00 · home point 46.8033, -89.7637
Set-up score = the same factor blend the day-1 report uses, before calibration. It ranks mornings; it is not a probability. Day 1 is calibrated in the main report. ★ = best-ranked morning beyond tomorrow.
| morning | set-up | band | type | light | T−Td min | wind | mid+high cloud | sunrise | models |
|---|
| Tue 20 Oct | 0.23 | poor | shallow ground fog | sun will reach the fog top | 10.8 °C | 11.1 kt | 0 % | 08:24 · 104.5° | 5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.55 |
| Wed 21 Oct | 0.12 | poor | shallow ground fog | overcast above the fog | 8.8 °C | 11.4 kt | 46 % | 08:25 · 105.0° | 5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.39 |
| Thu 22 Oct ★ | 0.80 | strong set-up | deep fog bank | sun will reach the fog top | 0.0 °C | 1.8 kt | 0 % | 08:27 · 105.6° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.38 |
| Fri 23 Oct | 0.42 | poor | shallow ground fog | overcast above the fog | 1.9 °C | 7.5 kt | 0 % | 08:28 · 106.1° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.20 |
| Sat 24 Oct | 0.01 | poor | shallow ground fog | overcast above the fog | 4.3 °C | 11.9 kt | 98 % | 08:30 · 106.6° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.00 |
| Sun 25 Oct | 0.13 | poor | shallow ground fog | overcast above the fog | 0.1 °C | 8.8 kt | 100 % | 08:31 · 107.1° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.33 |
| Mon 26 Oct | 0.29 | poor | shallow ground fog | sun will reach the fog top | 1.7 °C | 6.4 kt | 70 % | 08:32 · 107.6° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.61 |
What a set-up score has meant (day-1 backtest, raw score before calibration, airport mornings)- strong set-up (≥ 0.75): fog on 25 % of 44 mornings
- decent set-up (≥ 0.60): fog on 17 % of 82 mornings
- marginal (≥ 0.45): fog on 12 % of 154 mornings
- poor (≥ 0.00): fog on 8 % of 285 mornings
Ranking skill by lead (AUC from the lead backtest; 0.5 = none, 1 = perfect): 1 day ahead 0.746, 2 days ahead 0.726, 3 days ahead 0.738, 5 days ahead 0.627
Tue 20 Oct — set-up 0.23, poor
Confidencesee the main report (calibrated, HRRR included)Typeshallow ground fogLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise08:24 at 104.5° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr 0.016, ecmwf_ifs025 0.408, gfs_global 0.404, icon_seamless 0.57, ncep_nbm_conus 0.135
Wed 21 Oct — set-up 0.12, poor
ConfidenceHRRR reaches this morning; models usually agree on the airmass; backtest AUC at this lead 0.726 (measured at 2 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightovercast above the fogSunrise08:25 at 105.0° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr 0.014, ecmwf_ifs025 0.082, gfs_global 0.27, icon_seamless 0.399, ncep_nbm_conus 0.075
Thu 22 Oct — set-up 0.80, strong set-up
Confidenceset-up only: dewpoint, wind and sky from the global models; backtest AUC at this lead 0.738 (measured at 3 days)Typedeep fog bankLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise08:27 at 105.6° ESEHours saturated11Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.855, gfs_global 0.601, icon_seamless 0.985, ncep_nbm_conus 0.755
Fri 23 Oct — set-up 0.42, poor
Confidenceset-up only: dewpoint, wind and sky from the global models; backtest AUC at this lead 0.738 (measured at 3 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightovercast above the fogSunrise08:28 at 106.1° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.471, gfs_global 0.502, icon_seamless 0.469, ncep_nbm_conus 0.299
Sat 24 Oct — set-up 0.01, poor
Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightovercast above the fogSunrise08:30 at 106.6° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.008, gfs_global 0.006, icon_seamless 0.008, ncep_nbm_conus 0.009
Sun 25 Oct — set-up 0.13, poor
Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightovercast above the fogSunrise08:31 at 107.1° ESEHours saturated2Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.34, gfs_global 0.009, icon_seamless 0.154, ncep_nbm_conus 0.012
Mon 26 Oct — set-up 0.29, poor
Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise08:32 at 107.6° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.499, gfs_global 0.02, icon_seamless 0.633, ncep_nbm_conus 0.08
Honesty notes
- Days 2–7 use ECMWF, GFS, ICON and NBM (HRRR where its 48 h reach allows). The set-up score is the raw factor blend; it ranks mornings and is not a calibrated probability.
- Skill falls with lead. Use days 5–7 only to spot a pattern; re-check nightly and treat the day-1 report as the decision.
- No vertical profile, river gauge or NBM bulletin feeds the outlook; those are day-1 checks only.
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