dashboard tonight 7-day · Porcupine Mountains / Lake Superior

Fog forecast — Tuesday 20 October

run 2026-10-19T22:30-04:00 · times in America/Detroit
grade
F
No fog morning.
P(fog) home
1 %
low confidence
sunrise
08:24
104.5° ESE · civil dawn 07:52
beams 2°–12°
08:40–09:45
burn-off n/a
at sunrise
49°F
9.4 °C · wind 11 kt (HRRR)

Reading

shallow ground fog · 0–3 m, if any (estimate)the primary model never brings T−Td under 1 °C (minimum 10.8 °C); anything that forms will be thin patches over water and the wettest low ground.Light: no fog expected; sky at sunrise: mid+high cloud at sunrise ≈ 0 %.HRRR profile at KIWD 08:00 (run 2026-10-19 20:00): no level saturated (T−Td ≤ 1 °C), temperature change 10 m → 80 m: +0.3 °C (inversion) — profile shows no saturated layer at the airport; any fog will be local to low ground and watermodels disagree (spread 0.55); treat the number as a coin-flip and check the 04:45 refresh.

Lake Superior mechanisms

Bank over the escarpment: unlikely (set-up 0.07, uncalibrated) — low cloud ≈ 0 %, wind 164° at 11.1 kt (offshore), saturated layer none vs escarpment 416 m, escarpment in cloud 0/5 dawn hours (HRRR levels 975–900 hPa over the lake point)
Steam fog over the lake: unlikely (lake 7.7 °C (NDBC 45006 water temperature (observation)) vs forecast dawn air over the water 8.7 °C (HRRR) → -1.0 °C; steam needs roughly 8–10 °C or more (rule of thumb, uncalibrated); wind is off the land, so the steam stays over the lake as a band seen from the shore)
Lake mechanisms are scored from physical rules of thumb and have no backtest; treat labels as a reading of the set-up, not a probability. The radiation score above still applies to low ground away from the water.

Sites, best first

sitefoggradelightdrivedrone
Summit Peak observation tower3 %Fsun will reach the fog top28permit
Ontonagon Marina4 %Fsun will reach the fog top26unknown
Lake Superior shoreline at the park's M-107 east boundary3 %Fsun will reach the fog top4permit
Government Peak2 %Fsun will reach the fog topNonepermit
Lake of the Clouds scenic overlook1 %Fsun will reach the fog top32permit
Big Carp River valley floor at the Lake of the Clouds outlet1 %Fsun will reach the fog top32permit
Cuyahoga Peak1 %Fsun will reach the fog top20permit
Presque Isle River mouth2 %Fsun will reach the fog top48permit
sitefoggradetypelightsunrisedrivedrone
Summit Peak observation tower3 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:24 · 104.5°28permit
Ontonagon Marina (City of Ontonagon)4 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:22 · 104.5°26unknown
Lake Superior shoreline at the park's M-107 east boundary3 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:23 · 104.5°4permit
Government Peak2 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:24 · 104.5°Nonepermit
Lake of the Clouds scenic overlook (DNR waypoint 'LAKE OF CLOUDS')1 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:24 · 104.5°32permit
Big Carp River valley floor at the Lake of the Clouds outlet (North Mirror Lake Trail vertex)1 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:24 · 104.5°32permit
Cuyahoga Peak (Escarpment Trail high point candidate)1 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:24 · 104.5°20permit
Presque Isle River mouth (Presque Isle Unit)2 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:25 · 104.5°48permit
Union Bay Campground (lakeshore)2 %Fshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top08:23 · 104.5°8prohibited
Summit Peak observation tower — 3 %, shallow ground fog
where46.7478, -89.7719 · map lookhighest ground in the park: above most lake fog decks, beams through the forest on the slopes featuressummit (DNR: highest point in the park), observation tower, relief 411 m above Lake SuperioraccessDNR FAQ: "State parks and recreation area day-use hours are open 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily." That is the statewide rule; the Porkies page gives no park-specific hours and no gate times. Winter: "Park roads, including County Road M-107 at the Whitetail parking area and South Boundary Road closes at Headquarters Road south to the Pinkerton Trailhead, close Dec. 1 through late spring". No October-November road closure is stated. Visitor center: "Oct. 15 - May 14: Closed for the season". Computed sunrise at the overlook (api.sunrise-sunset.org, America/Detroit): 08:17 EDT Oct 16, 08:38 EDT Oct 31, 07:40 EST Nov 1, 08:00 EST Nov 15, 08:20 EST Nov 30; civil twilight starts about 30 min earlier. Result: 8:00 opening is before sunrise through Oct 31, but from Nov 1 sunrise (about 07:40-07:59 EST until about Nov 14) is before the stated opening, and pre-sunrise blue hour is before 8:00 all season. DNR trail PDF: "Summit Peak parking area to tower ... 0.5 miles"; "Trail climbs 300 feet to the tower." dronepermit — Order 5.1(5), as amended Sept 9, 2026: "Launch an unmanned aircraft from state managed lands in conflict with the unmanned aircraft system act (PA 436 of 2016), and as follows." Listed bans: "(c) Within 100 yards of a cultural or historical site or structure." "(f) Over an occupied beach area." "(h) Over a campground." "(i) Over a restroom or open-air changing court." "(k) For a commercial purpose without first obtaining written permission from an authorized representative of the department, pursuant to administrative rule 299.922(dd)." Porcupine-specific Order 5.1(10) covers only bear feeding and snowmobiles. DNR commercial-use page: commercial use is "use of a state-managed property or land for profit or benefit. Benefit may include ... the growth or promotion of a business"; "Filming or photography" is listed; "you must submit a non-event use permit application at least 60 days in advance". No flat ban on recreational drone flight was found. Status 'permit' is the conservative reading for a working photographer; non-commercial flight outside the listed zones is not banned by this order. Text of R 299.922(dd) itself was not retrieved. source airspaceNot researched. KOGM 32.7 km, KIWD 36.8 km, KCMX 108.0 km. notesDrive time is OSRM to the nearest road (snaps 428 m away), not to the parking area. Tower is a viewing structure; DNR clause about structures covers 'cultural or historical' sites only. suncivil dawn 07:52, sunrise 08:24 at 104.5°, beams 08:40–09:45, burn-off 08:54–09:39 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 6.6 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.98 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 5.1 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.99 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 7.9 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 3.5 °C vs afternoon dewpoint -2.6 °C → +6.1 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 27.7 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 6.6 °C: air does not saturate

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.141, ncep_nbm_conus 0.524, ecmwf_ifs025 0.414, icon_seamless 0.57 · spread 0.429

Ontonagon Marina (City of Ontonagon) — 4 %, shallow ground fog
where46.8696, -89.3210 · map looksteam fog over the water on cold mornings; looking up at the escarpment bank when the wind is onshore featuresmarina/harbor at lake level, Lake Superior shorelineaccessunknown: no hours found for the marina. droneunknown — unknown. Not state park land, so Order 5.1 does not apply on its face. No City of Ontonagon drone rule found in one search; Ontonagon County park rules were surfaced but not read. airspaceNot researched. KOGM is 4.4 km away (the nearest of the three, and it reports no METAR). KCMX 71.3 km, KIWD 72.6 km. notesOSRM from park headquarters, 25.2 km. DNR calls Ontonagon "about 20 miles east of the park". suncivil dawn 07:51, sunrise 08:22 at 104.5°, beams 08:38–09:43, burn-off 08:37–09:07 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 6.5 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.89 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 5.6 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.40 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 6.6 °C; part of this is cold advection, not radiation (discounted)
  • moisture: 0.20 — crossover: forecast night minimum 4.3 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 2.5 °C → +1.8 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm; BUT dewpoint falls 4.3 °C by dawn — drier air moving in, crossover rule discounted
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 29.4 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 6.5 °C: air does not saturate

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.121, ncep_nbm_conus 0.611, ecmwf_ifs025 0.43, icon_seamless 0.595 · spread 0.49

Lake Superior shoreline at the park's M-107 east boundary — 3 %, shallow ground fog
where46.8186, -89.6296 · map looksteam fog over the water on cold mornings; looking up at the escarpment bank when the wind is onshore featuresLake Superior shoreline (Union Bay), road at lake levelaccessDNR FAQ: "State parks and recreation area day-use hours are open 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily." That is the statewide rule; the Porkies page gives no park-specific hours and no gate times. Winter: "Park roads, including County Road M-107 at the Whitetail parking area and South Boundary Road closes at Headquarters Road south to the Pinkerton Trailhead, close Dec. 1 through late spring". No October-November road closure is stated. Visitor center: "Oct. 15 - May 14: Closed for the season". Computed sunrise at the overlook (api.sunrise-sunset.org, America/Detroit): 08:17 EDT Oct 16, 08:38 EDT Oct 31, 07:40 EST Nov 1, 08:00 EST Nov 15, 08:20 EST Nov 30; civil twilight starts about 30 min earlier. Result: 8:00 opening is before sunrise through Oct 31, but from Nov 1 sunrise (about 07:40-07:59 EST until about Nov 14) is before the stated opening, and pre-sunrise blue hour is before 8:00 all season. dronepermit — Order 5.1(5), as amended Sept 9, 2026: "Launch an unmanned aircraft from state managed lands in conflict with the unmanned aircraft system act (PA 436 of 2016), and as follows." Listed bans: "(c) Within 100 yards of a cultural or historical site or structure." "(f) Over an occupied beach area." "(h) Over a campground." "(i) Over a restroom or open-air changing court." "(k) For a commercial purpose without first obtaining written permission from an authorized representative of the department, pursuant to administrative rule 299.922(dd)." Porcupine-specific Order 5.1(10) covers only bear feeding and snowmobiles. DNR commercial-use page: commercial use is "use of a state-managed property or land for profit or benefit. Benefit may include ... the growth or promotion of a business"; "Filming or photography" is listed; "you must submit a non-event use permit application at least 60 days in advance". No flat ban on recreational drone flight was found. Status 'permit' is the conservative reading for a working photographer; non-commercial flight outside the listed zones is not banned by this order. Text of R 299.922(dd) itself was not retrieved. source airspaceNot researched. KOGM 20.2 km, KIWD 50.1 km, KCMX 94.8 km. notesOSRM from park headquarters 1.5 km. Fog features: open lake to the north, no escarpment relief. 183.487 m matches the ticket's 183 m for Lake Superior. suncivil dawn 07:52, sunrise 08:23 at 104.5°, beams 08:39–09:44, burn-off 08:38–09:08 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 6.8 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.74 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 6.5 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.57 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 4.8 °C
  • moisture: 0.23 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.5 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 2.3 °C → +3.2 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 23.3 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 6.8 °C: air does not saturate

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.118, ncep_nbm_conus 0.502, ecmwf_ifs025 0.408, icon_seamless 0.59 · spread 0.472

Government Peak — 2 %, shallow ground fog
where46.7833, -89.7310 · map lookhighest ground in the park: above most lake fog decks, beams through the forest on the slopes featuressummit, forested ridge, relief 380 m above Lake SuperioraccessDNR FAQ: "State parks and recreation area day-use hours are open 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily." That is the statewide rule; the Porkies page gives no park-specific hours and no gate times. Winter: "Park roads, including County Road M-107 at the Whitetail parking area and South Boundary Road closes at Headquarters Road south to the Pinkerton Trailhead, close Dec. 1 through late spring". No October-November road closure is stated. Visitor center: "Oct. 15 - May 14: Closed for the season". Computed sunrise at the overlook (api.sunrise-sunset.org, America/Detroit): 08:17 EDT Oct 16, 08:38 EDT Oct 31, 07:40 EST Nov 1, 08:00 EST Nov 15, 08:20 EST Nov 30; civil twilight starts about 30 min earlier. Result: 8:00 opening is before sunrise through Oct 31, but from Nov 1 sunrise (about 07:40-07:59 EST until about Nov 14) is before the stated opening, and pre-sunrise blue hour is before 8:00 all season. Accessible on foot: DNR trail PDF, Government Peak Trail: "Leaving the trailhead on M-107, the trail crosses the upper Carp River, following it to Trap Falls. From here the trail swings west through fine stands of hardwood and hemlock to Government Peak." dronepermit — Order 5.1(5), as amended Sept 9, 2026: "Launch an unmanned aircraft from state managed lands in conflict with the unmanned aircraft system act (PA 436 of 2016), and as follows." Listed bans: "(c) Within 100 yards of a cultural or historical site or structure." "(f) Over an occupied beach area." "(h) Over a campground." "(i) Over a restroom or open-air changing court." "(k) For a commercial purpose without first obtaining written permission from an authorized representative of the department, pursuant to administrative rule 299.922(dd)." Porcupine-specific Order 5.1(10) covers only bear feeding and snowmobiles. DNR commercial-use page: commercial use is "use of a state-managed property or land for profit or benefit. Benefit may include ... the growth or promotion of a business"; "Filming or photography" is listed; "you must submit a non-event use permit application at least 60 days in advance". No flat ban on recreational drone flight was found. Status 'permit' is the conservative reading for a working photographer; non-commercial flight outside the listed zones is not banned by this order. Text of R 299.922(dd) itself was not retrieved. source airspaceNot researched. KOGM 28.5 km, KIWD 41.7 km, KCMX 103.5 km. notesDrive time left null: OSRM snaps the peak 3.4 km from any road (30.5 min) and the trailhead coordinate on M-107 was not found, so no honest figure. DNR trail PDF segments from the M-107 trailhead (0.7 + 1.3 + 1.3 + 1.9 miles, my sum) come to about 5.2 miles to the peak; total trail length is stated as 7.3 miles. suncivil dawn 07:52, sunrise 08:24 at 104.5°, beams 08:40–09:45, burn-off 08:39–09:09 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 9.3 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 14.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.23 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 2.6 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 7.8 °C vs afternoon dewpoint -0.5 °C → +8.2 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 33.6 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 9.3 °C: air does not saturate
  • GATE ×0.25: wind 14 kt: too much mixing for radiation fog

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.015, ncep_nbm_conus 0.46, ecmwf_ifs025 0.413, icon_seamless 0.57 · spread 0.555

Lake of the Clouds scenic overlook (DNR waypoint 'LAKE OF CLOUDS') — 1 %, shallow ground fog
where46.8033, -89.7637 · map lookfrom the escarpment: the bank cresting the ridge toward you, or a sea of cloud below if the top is beneath you; valley radiation fog in the Carp River below featureslake (Lake of the Clouds), river (Big Carp River outlet), escarpment relief, valley belowaccessDNR FAQ: "State parks and recreation area day-use hours are open 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily." That is the statewide rule; the Porkies page gives no park-specific hours and no gate times. Winter: "Park roads, including County Road M-107 at the Whitetail parking area and South Boundary Road closes at Headquarters Road south to the Pinkerton Trailhead, close Dec. 1 through late spring". No October-November road closure is stated. Visitor center: "Oct. 15 - May 14: Closed for the season". Computed sunrise at the overlook (api.sunrise-sunset.org, America/Detroit): 08:17 EDT Oct 16, 08:38 EDT Oct 31, 07:40 EST Nov 1, 08:00 EST Nov 15, 08:20 EST Nov 30; civil twilight starts about 30 min earlier. Result: 8:00 opening is before sunrise through Oct 31, but from Nov 1 sunrise (about 07:40-07:59 EST until about Nov 14) is before the stated opening, and pre-sunrise blue hour is before 8:00 all season. dronepermit — Order 5.1(5), as amended Sept 9, 2026: "Launch an unmanned aircraft from state managed lands in conflict with the unmanned aircraft system act (PA 436 of 2016), and as follows." Listed bans: "(c) Within 100 yards of a cultural or historical site or structure." "(f) Over an occupied beach area." "(h) Over a campground." "(i) Over a restroom or open-air changing court." "(k) For a commercial purpose without first obtaining written permission from an authorized representative of the department, pursuant to administrative rule 299.922(dd)." Porcupine-specific Order 5.1(10) covers only bear feeding and snowmobiles. DNR commercial-use page: commercial use is "use of a state-managed property or land for profit or benefit. Benefit may include ... the growth or promotion of a business"; "Filming or photography" is listed; "you must submit a non-event use permit application at least 60 days in advance". No flat ban on recreational drone flight was found. Status 'permit' is the conservative reading for a working photographer; non-commercial flight outside the listed zones is not banned by this order. Text of R 299.922(dd) itself was not retrieved. source airspaceNot researched (outside ticket). Nearest ICAO fields from this point, great-circle: KOGM 30.5 km, KIWD 41.6 km, KCMX 104.9 km. notesDrive time is OSRM public router from DNR park headquarters waypoint, 13.2 km; implied 24.5 km/h because OSM tags M-107 'unclassified' with no maxspeed, so this probably overstates real time. DNR calls the road 'County Road M-107'. Gate at the overlook: not found on any michigan.gov page. suncivil dawn 07:52, sunrise 08:24 at 104.5°, beams 08:40–09:45, burn-off 08:39–09:09 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 10.8 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.09 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 11.1 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.20 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 2.1 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 9.4 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 0.1 °C → +9.2 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 40.5 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 10.8 °C: air does not saturate
  • GATE ×0.25: wind 11 kt: too much mixing for radiation fog

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.016, ncep_nbm_conus 0.135, ecmwf_ifs025 0.408, icon_seamless 0.57 · spread 0.554

Big Carp River valley floor at the Lake of the Clouds outlet (North Mirror Lake Trail vertex) — 1 %, shallow ground fog
where46.8012, -89.7619 · map lookinside valley fog at dawn; the overlook above is the vantage for it featureslake outlet, river (Big Carp River), valley floor, escarpment aboveaccessDNR FAQ: "State parks and recreation area day-use hours are open 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily." That is the statewide rule; the Porkies page gives no park-specific hours and no gate times. Winter: "Park roads, including County Road M-107 at the Whitetail parking area and South Boundary Road closes at Headquarters Road south to the Pinkerton Trailhead, close Dec. 1 through late spring". No October-November road closure is stated. Visitor center: "Oct. 15 - May 14: Closed for the season". Computed sunrise at the overlook (api.sunrise-sunset.org, America/Detroit): 08:17 EDT Oct 16, 08:38 EDT Oct 31, 07:40 EST Nov 1, 08:00 EST Nov 15, 08:20 EST Nov 30; civil twilight starts about 30 min earlier. Result: 8:00 opening is before sunrise through Oct 31, but from Nov 1 sunrise (about 07:40-07:59 EST until about Nov 14) is before the stated opening, and pre-sunrise blue hour is before 8:00 all season. Reached on foot only (trail descends from the overlook parking area). dronepermit — Order 5.1(5), as amended Sept 9, 2026: "Launch an unmanned aircraft from state managed lands in conflict with the unmanned aircraft system act (PA 436 of 2016), and as follows." Listed bans: "(c) Within 100 yards of a cultural or historical site or structure." "(f) Over an occupied beach area." "(h) Over a campground." "(i) Over a restroom or open-air changing court." "(k) For a commercial purpose without first obtaining written permission from an authorized representative of the department, pursuant to administrative rule 299.922(dd)." Porcupine-specific Order 5.1(10) covers only bear feeding and snowmobiles. DNR commercial-use page: commercial use is "use of a state-managed property or land for profit or benefit. Benefit may include ... the growth or promotion of a business"; "Filming or photography" is listed; "you must submit a non-event use permit application at least 60 days in advance". No flat ban on recreational drone flight was found. Status 'permit' is the conservative reading for a working photographer; non-commercial flight outside the listed zones is not banned by this order. Text of R 299.922(dd) itself was not retrieved. source airspaceNot researched. KOGM 30.4 km, KIWD 41.5 km, KCMX 104.8 km. notesDrive time is to the overlook road (OSRM snaps 391 m from the point); the rest is a walk down the escarpment. Trail walking time not found. suncivil dawn 07:52, sunrise 08:24 at 104.5°, beams 08:40–09:45, burn-off 08:39–09:09 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 10.9 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.09 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 11.1 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.20 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 2.1 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 9.9 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 0.6 °C → +9.3 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 40.5 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 10.9 °C: air does not saturate
  • GATE ×0.25: wind 11 kt: too much mixing for radiation fog

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.016, ncep_nbm_conus 0.135, ecmwf_ifs025 0.408, icon_seamless 0.57 · spread 0.554

Cuyahoga Peak (Escarpment Trail high point candidate) — 1 %, shallow ground fog
where46.8136, -89.7160 · map lookfrom the escarpment: the bank cresting the ridge toward you, or a sea of cloud below if the top is beneath you; valley radiation fog in the Carp River below featuresescarpment ridge, relief 156 m above Lake of the Clouds surface, 300 m above Lake SuperioraccessDNR FAQ: "State parks and recreation area day-use hours are open 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily." That is the statewide rule; the Porkies page gives no park-specific hours and no gate times. Winter: "Park roads, including County Road M-107 at the Whitetail parking area and South Boundary Road closes at Headquarters Road south to the Pinkerton Trailhead, close Dec. 1 through late spring". No October-November road closure is stated. Visitor center: "Oct. 15 - May 14: Closed for the season". Computed sunrise at the overlook (api.sunrise-sunset.org, America/Detroit): 08:17 EDT Oct 16, 08:38 EDT Oct 31, 07:40 EST Nov 1, 08:00 EST Nov 15, 08:20 EST Nov 30; civil twilight starts about 30 min earlier. Result: 8:00 opening is before sunrise through Oct 31, but from Nov 1 sunrise (about 07:40-07:59 EST until about Nov 14) is before the stated opening, and pre-sunrise blue hour is before 8:00 all season. Trail access only; DNR Escarpment Trail text: "Follows the escarpment ridge from the Lake of the Clouds parking area to the Government Peak Trailhead on M-107." dronepermit — Order 5.1(5), as amended Sept 9, 2026: "Launch an unmanned aircraft from state managed lands in conflict with the unmanned aircraft system act (PA 436 of 2016), and as follows." Listed bans: "(c) Within 100 yards of a cultural or historical site or structure." "(f) Over an occupied beach area." "(h) Over a campground." "(i) Over a restroom or open-air changing court." "(k) For a commercial purpose without first obtaining written permission from an authorized representative of the department, pursuant to administrative rule 299.922(dd)." Porcupine-specific Order 5.1(10) covers only bear feeding and snowmobiles. DNR commercial-use page: commercial use is "use of a state-managed property or land for profit or benefit. Benefit may include ... the growth or promotion of a business"; "Filming or photography" is listed; "you must submit a non-event use permit application at least 60 days in advance". No flat ban on recreational drone flight was found. Status 'permit' is the conservative reading for a working photographer; non-commercial flight outside the listed zones is not banned by this order. Text of R 299.922(dd) itself was not retrieved. source airspaceNot researched. KOGM 26.8 km, KIWD 44.9 km, KCMX 101.1 km. notesDrive time is OSRM to the nearest road, which snaps 496 m from the peak; trailhead and hike time not found. Cloud Peak alternative: Nominatim 46.8118901,-89.7301580, 459.4 m (DNR waypoint 46.81158,-89.73095, 460.6 m), OSRM 22.8 min. DNR waypoint list names mine relics (Carp Lake Boiler, Carp Lake Adit) roughly 0.3-0.9 km from the peaks; not verified whether any counts as a 'cultural or historical site' for the 100-yard clause. suncivil dawn 07:52, sunrise 08:24 at 104.5°, beams 08:40–09:45, burn-off 08:39–09:09 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 9.0 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 13.8 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.24 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 2.8 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 7.9 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 0.8 °C → +7.1 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 34.6 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 9.0 °C: air does not saturate
  • GATE ×0.25: wind 14 kt: too much mixing for radiation fog

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.015, ncep_nbm_conus 0.139, ecmwf_ifs025 0.413, icon_seamless 0.57 · spread 0.555

Presque Isle River mouth (Presque Isle Unit) — 2 %, shallow ground fog
where46.7102, -89.9746 · map looksteam fog over the water on cold mornings; looking up at the escarpment bank when the wind is onshore featuresriver mouth, Lake Superior shoreline, river corridoraccessDNR FAQ: "State parks and recreation area day-use hours are open 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily." That is the statewide rule; the Porkies page gives no park-specific hours and no gate times. Winter: "Park roads, including County Road M-107 at the Whitetail parking area and South Boundary Road closes at Headquarters Road south to the Pinkerton Trailhead, close Dec. 1 through late spring". No October-November road closure is stated. Visitor center: "Oct. 15 - May 14: Closed for the season". Computed sunrise at the overlook (api.sunrise-sunset.org, America/Detroit): 08:17 EDT Oct 16, 08:38 EDT Oct 31, 07:40 EST Nov 1, 08:00 EST Nov 15, 08:20 EST Nov 30; civil twilight starts about 30 min earlier. Result: 8:00 opening is before sunrise through Oct 31, but from Nov 1 sunrise (about 07:40-07:59 EST until about Nov 14) is before the stated opening, and pre-sunrise blue hour is before 8:00 all season. Winter: "Access to Presque Isle Scenic Area remains available via County Road 519 just east of Wakefield." Presque Isle day-use area and rustic campground are on this unit. dronepermit — Order 5.1(5), as amended Sept 9, 2026: "Launch an unmanned aircraft from state managed lands in conflict with the unmanned aircraft system act (PA 436 of 2016), and as follows." Listed bans: "(c) Within 100 yards of a cultural or historical site or structure." "(f) Over an occupied beach area." "(h) Over a campground." "(i) Over a restroom or open-air changing court." "(k) For a commercial purpose without first obtaining written permission from an authorized representative of the department, pursuant to administrative rule 299.922(dd)." Porcupine-specific Order 5.1(10) covers only bear feeding and snowmobiles. DNR commercial-use page: commercial use is "use of a state-managed property or land for profit or benefit. Benefit may include ... the growth or promotion of a business"; "Filming or photography" is listed; "you must submit a non-event use permit application at least 60 days in advance". No flat ban on recreational drone flight was found. Status 'permit' is the conservative reading for a working photographer; non-commercial flight outside the listed zones is not banned by this order. Text of R 299.922(dd) itself was not retrieved. source airspaceNot researched. KIWD 23.6 km, KOGM 48.6 km, KCMX 123.8 km. notesOSRM from park headquarters, 40.3 km; mouth snaps 318 m from the road. Over a campground and occupied beach areas are banned for drones. suncivil dawn 07:53, sunrise 08:25 at 104.5°, beams 08:41–09:46, burn-off 08:40–09:10 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 9.1 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.31 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 8.9 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.40 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 5.3 °C; part of this is cold advection, not radiation (discounted)
  • moisture: 0.15 — crossover: forecast night minimum 8.4 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 4.8 °C → +3.7 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm; BUT dewpoint falls 5.7 °C by dawn — drier air moving in, crossover rule discounted
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 34.7 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 9.1 °C: air does not saturate

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.085, ncep_nbm_conus 0.51, ecmwf_ifs025 0.408, icon_seamless 0.13 · spread 0.425

Union Bay Campground (lakeshore) — 2 %, shallow ground fog
where46.8237, -89.6407 · map looksteam fog over the water on cold mornings; looking up at the escarpment bank when the wind is onshore featuresLake Superior shoreline (Union Bay), sandy beach, rocky shore, boat launchaccessDNR FAQ: "State parks and recreation area day-use hours are open 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily." That is the statewide rule; the Porkies page gives no park-specific hours and no gate times. Winter: "Park roads, including County Road M-107 at the Whitetail parking area and South Boundary Road closes at Headquarters Road south to the Pinkerton Trailhead, close Dec. 1 through late spring". No October-November road closure is stated. Visitor center: "Oct. 15 - May 14: Closed for the season". Computed sunrise at the overlook (api.sunrise-sunset.org, America/Detroit): 08:17 EDT Oct 16, 08:38 EDT Oct 31, 07:40 EST Nov 1, 08:00 EST Nov 15, 08:20 EST Nov 30; civil twilight starts about 30 min earlier. Result: 8:00 opening is before sunrise through Oct 31, but from Nov 1 sunrise (about 07:40-07:59 EST until about Nov 14) is before the stated opening, and pre-sunrise blue hour is before 8:00 all season. DNR: "Only registered campers are allowed in the campgrounds after 10 p.m." so campers are present at dawn; day-use boat access and beach are adjacent to the campground. droneprohibited — Order 5.1(5), as amended Sept 9, 2026: "Launch an unmanned aircraft from state managed lands in conflict with the unmanned aircraft system act (PA 436 of 2016), and as follows." Listed bans: "(c) Within 100 yards of a cultural or historical site or structure." "(f) Over an occupied beach area." "(h) Over a campground." "(i) Over a restroom or open-air changing court." "(k) For a commercial purpose without first obtaining written permission from an authorized representative of the department, pursuant to administrative rule 299.922(dd)." Porcupine-specific Order 5.1(10) covers only bear feeding and snowmobiles. DNR commercial-use page: commercial use is "use of a state-managed property or land for profit or benefit. Benefit may include ... the growth or promotion of a business"; "Filming or photography" is listed; "you must submit a non-event use permit application at least 60 days in advance". No flat ban on recreational drone flight was found. Status 'permit' is the conservative reading for a working photographer; non-commercial flight outside the listed zones is not banned by this order. Text of R 299.922(dd) itself was not retrieved. source airspaceNot researched. KOGM 21.0 km, KIWD 49.9 km, KCMX 95.4 km. notes'prohibited' because rule (h) bans flying "Over a campground"; the beach and shoreline outside the campground are covered by (f) occupied beach area and by the permit clause, not a flat ban. OSRM from park headquarters 2.9 km. suncivil dawn 07:52, sunrise 08:23 at 104.5°, beams 08:39–09:44, burn-off 08:38–09:08 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.00 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 9.4 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 0.28 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 9.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 0 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 0.23 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 2.5 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 7.6 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 1.8 °C → +5.8 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 36.1 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)
  • GATE ×0.3: dewpoint depression never below 9.4 °C: air does not saturate

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.076, ncep_nbm_conus 0.502, ecmwf_ifs025 0.402 · spread 0.426

Next 7 mornings

morningset-upbandlightT−Tdwind
Tue 20 Oct0.23poorsun will reach the fog top10.811 kt
Wed 21 Oct0.12poorovercast above the fog8.811 kt
Thu 22 Oct ★0.80strong set-upsun will reach the fog top0.02 kt
Fri 23 Oct0.42poorovercast above the fog1.97 kt
Sat 24 Oct0.01poorovercast above the fog4.312 kt
Sun 25 Oct0.13poorovercast above the fog0.19 kt
Mon 26 Oct0.29poorsun will reach the fog top1.76 kt
morningset-upbandtypelightT−Td minwindmid+high cloudsunrisemodels
Tue 20 Oct0.23poorshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top10.8 °C11.1 kt0 %08:24 · 104.5°5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.55
Wed 21 Oct0.12poorshallow ground fogovercast above the fog8.8 °C11.4 kt46 %08:25 · 105.0°5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.39
Thu 22 Oct ★0.80strong set-updeep fog banksun will reach the fog top0.0 °C1.8 kt0 %08:27 · 105.6°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.38
Fri 23 Oct0.42poorshallow ground fogovercast above the fog1.9 °C7.5 kt0 %08:28 · 106.1°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.20
Sat 24 Oct0.01poorshallow ground fogovercast above the fog4.3 °C11.9 kt98 %08:30 · 106.6°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.00
Sun 25 Oct0.13poorshallow ground fogovercast above the fog0.1 °C8.8 kt100 %08:31 · 107.1°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.33
Mon 26 Oct0.29poorshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top1.7 °C6.4 kt70 %08:32 · 107.6°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.61

outlook page with drivers and lead skill

Factors (HRRR, home)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.016, ncep_nbm_conus 0.135, ecmwf_ifs025 0.408, icon_seamless 0.57 · spread 0.554

Hourly, HRRR

localTTdT−Tdktlowmidhighvis km
22:009.7-3.913.610.900050.9
23:0010.1-1.912.012.700044.8
00:0010.7-2.012.714.500047.6
01:0010.8-0.911.716.000043.1
02:0011.00.710.315.600038.3
03:0010.90.310.612.700039.5
04:0010.6-2.112.712.600047.0
05:0010.2-0.610.811.900040.5
06:009.8-1.211.010.800041.7
07:009.6-2.111.710.600043.3
08:009.4-1.611.011.200040.9
09:009.6-0.19.712.000036.8
10:0011.21.49.811.300035.9
11:0013.12.410.77.330038.8

Independent checks

NBM bulletin for KOGM (cycle 2026-10-20T01:00:00+00:00, NOAA's own blend)

local°FTdktskyvis miP(vis<1)P(vis<3)cig
03:0040333810.01 %3 %-88
04:0040333610.02 %3 %-88
05:0039333310.02 %3 %-88
06:0039324310.02 %4 %-88
07:0039324710.03 %4 %-88
08:0039334910.03 %4 %-88
09:0042345310.04 %6 %-88

HRRR vertical profile at KIWD (run 2026-10-19 20:00; saturated depth = height to which T−Td ≤ 1 °C)

localsat. depthΔT 10→80 mlowest levels (m: T / Td)
03:000 m0.6 °C8: 9.8/3.5 · 33: 10.0/3.4 · 79: 10.4/3.3 · 158: 12.1/3.4
04:000 m0.5 °C8: 9.9/1.9 · 34: 10.0/1.8 · 79: 10.4/1.2 · 158: 11.9/-1.1
05:000 m0.3 °C9: 9.2/1.1 · 34: 9.3/0.9 · 79: 9.5/0.6 · 158: 11.2/-0.8
06:000 m0.2 °C9: 8.9/0.9 · 34: 9.0/0.8 · 79: 9.1/0.7 · 158: 11.0/0.1
07:000 m0.2 °C9: 8.6/0.6 · 34: 8.7/0.6 · 79: 8.8/0.4 · 158: 10.9/0.0
08:000 m0.3 °C8: 8.2/0.0 · 33: 8.3/-0.1 · 78: 8.5/-0.2 · 157: 11.1/0.3
09:000 m0.2 °C10: 8.0/0.3 · 34: 8.0/0.2 · 78: 8.2/0.3 · 158: 11.1/1.2

Right now at KIWD

METAR KIWD 200156Z AUTO 08007KT 10SM CLR 06/01 A3038 RMK AO2 SLP300 T00560006

Observed T−Td 5.0 °C vs HRRR for this hour 13.6 °C.

NWS forecast discussion 2026-10-19T23:12:00+00:00

No paragraph mentions fog, stratus or visibility.

Were you out there?

One tap at dawn. This is the only truth the tool gets from the field; the airport sensor cannot see a river bottom.

Verification so far

morningrunforecastgradeairport visairport fog?field reportcam
2026-10-16predawn1 %F2.5 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-17evening1 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-17predawn1 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-18evening0 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-18predawn0 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-19evening3 %F—pending—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-19predawn2 %F—pending—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-20evening1 %F—pending——

Honesty notes

dashboard · 7-day outlook · raw json