7-day fog outlook — Kankakee / Bourbonnais
run 2026-10-19T21:30-05:00 · home point 41.1530, -87.8790
Set-up score = the same factor blend the day-1 report uses, before calibration. It ranks mornings; it is not a probability. Day 1 is calibrated in the main report. ★ = best-ranked morning beyond tomorrow.
| morning | set-up | band | type | light | T−Td min | wind | mid+high cloud | sunrise | models |
|---|
| Tue 20 Oct | 0.56 | marginal | shallow ground fog | filtered sun | 1.6 °C | 3.6 kt | 18 % | 07:09 · 103.2° | 5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.54 |
| Wed 21 Oct | 0.62 | decent set-up | shallow ground fog | sun will reach the fog top | 2.4 °C | 4.1 kt | 0 % | 07:10 · 103.7° | 5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.67 |
| Thu 22 Oct | 0.62 | decent set-up | shallow ground fog | sun will reach the fog top | 1.0 °C | 2.9 kt | 0 % | 07:11 · 104.2° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.66 |
| Fri 23 Oct ★ | 0.70 | decent set-up | deep fog bank | sun will reach the fog top | 0.3 °C | 4.7 kt | 0 % | 07:12 · 104.7° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.73 |
| Sat 24 Oct | 0.57 | marginal | shallow ground fog | overcast above the fog | 1.3 °C | 5.4 kt | 60 % | 07:13 · 105.1° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.60 |
| Sun 25 Oct | 0.21 | poor | shallow ground fog | overcast above the fog | 4.5 °C | 4.7 kt | 86 % | 07:14 · 105.6° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.56 |
| Mon 26 Oct | 0.28 | poor | shallow ground fog | overcast above the fog | 3.1 °C | 5.6 kt | 100 % | 07:15 · 106.0° | 4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.36 |
What a set-up score has meant (day-1 backtest, raw score before calibration, airport mornings)- strong set-up (≥ 0.75): fog on 25 % of 44 mornings
- decent set-up (≥ 0.60): fog on 17 % of 82 mornings
- marginal (≥ 0.45): fog on 12 % of 154 mornings
- poor (≥ 0.00): fog on 8 % of 285 mornings
Ranking skill by lead (AUC from the lead backtest; 0.5 = none, 1 = perfect): 1 day ahead 0.746, 2 days ahead 0.726, 3 days ahead 0.738, 5 days ahead 0.627
Tue 20 Oct — set-up 0.56, marginal
Confidencesee the main report (calibrated, HRRR included)Typeshallow ground fogLightfiltered sunSunrise07:09 at 103.2° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr 0.643, ecmwf_ifs025 0.548, gfs_global 0.124, icon_seamless 0.652, ncep_nbm_conus 0.662
Wed 21 Oct — set-up 0.62, decent set-up
ConfidenceHRRR reaches this morning; models usually agree on the airmass; backtest AUC at this lead 0.726 (measured at 2 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise07:10 at 103.7° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr 0.576, ecmwf_ifs025 0.752, gfs_global 0.135, icon_seamless 0.8, ncep_nbm_conus 0.769
Thu 22 Oct — set-up 0.62, decent set-up
Confidenceset-up only: dewpoint, wind and sky from the global models; backtest AUC at this lead 0.738 (measured at 3 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise07:11 at 104.2° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.78, gfs_global 0.125, icon_seamless 0.783, ncep_nbm_conus 0.697
Fri 23 Oct — set-up 0.70, decent set-up
Confidenceset-up only: dewpoint, wind and sky from the global models; backtest AUC at this lead 0.738 (measured at 3 days)Typedeep fog bankLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise07:12 at 104.7° ESEHours saturated10Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.823, gfs_global 0.136, icon_seamless 0.823, ncep_nbm_conus 0.87
Sat 24 Oct — set-up 0.57, marginal
Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightovercast above the fogSunrise07:13 at 105.1° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.691, gfs_global 0.117, icon_seamless 0.719, ncep_nbm_conus 0.662
Sun 25 Oct — set-up 0.21, poor
Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightovercast above the fogSunrise07:14 at 105.6° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.111, gfs_global 0.069, icon_seamless 0.629, ncep_nbm_conus 0.13
Mon 26 Oct — set-up 0.28, poor
Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightovercast above the fogSunrise07:15 at 106.0° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.312, gfs_global 0.087, icon_seamless 0.127, ncep_nbm_conus 0.446
Honesty notes
- Days 2–7 use ECMWF, GFS, ICON and NBM (HRRR where its 48 h reach allows). The set-up score is the raw factor blend; it ranks mornings and is not a calibrated probability.
- Skill falls with lead. Use days 5–7 only to spot a pattern; re-check nightly and treat the day-1 report as the decision.
- No vertical profile, river gauge or NBM bulletin feeds the outlook; those are day-1 checks only.
dashboard · tonight