dashboard tonight 7-day · Kankakee / Bourbonnais

Fog forecast — Tuesday 20 October

run 2026-10-19T21:30-05:00 · times in America/Chicago
grade
D
Unlikely. Sleep unless the refresh changes.
P(fog) home
13 %
high confidence
sunrise
07:09
103.2° ESE · civil dawn 06:40
beams 2°–12°
07:23–08:21
burn-off n/a
at sunrise
41°F
5.1 °C · wind 4 kt (HRRR)

Reading

shallow ground fog · 0–3 m, if any (estimate)the primary model never brings T−Td under 1 °C (minimum 1.6 °C); anything that forms will be thin patches over water and the wettest low ground.Light: no fog expected; sky at sunrise: mid+high cloud at sunrise ≈ 39 % — beams possible through gaps.HRRR profile at KIKK 07:00 (run 2026-10-19 13:00): no level saturated (T−Td ≤ 1 °C), temperature change 10 m → 80 m: +7.5 °C (inversion) — profile shows no saturated layer at the airport; any fog will be local to low ground and water4 models within 0.11 of each other on the blend score.

Sites, best first

sitefoggradelightdrivedrone
Bird Park16 %Dfiltered sun7unknown
Kankakee Sands - Illinois13 %Dsun will reach the fog top37prohibited
Momence Wetlands Nature Preserve19 %Dovercast above the fog38permit
Des Plaines State Fish and Wildlife Area20 %Dovercast above the fog48permit
Kankakee River State Park14 %Dfiltered sun12permit
Home13 %Dfiltered sun—unknown
Perry Farm Park12 %Dfiltered sun5unknown
Island Park17 %Dovercast above the fog29unknown
sitefoggradetypelightsunrisedrivedrone
Bird Park16 %Dshallow ground fogfiltered sun07:09 · 103.2°7unknown
Kankakee Sands - Illinois (The Nature Conservancy)13 %Dshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top07:08 · 103.2°37prohibited
Momence Wetlands Nature Preserve19 %Dshallow ground fogovercast above the fog07:07 · 103.2°38permit
Des Plaines State Fish and Wildlife Area20 %Dshallow ground fogovercast above the fog07:10 · 103.3°48permit
Kankakee River State Park14 %Dshallow ground fogfiltered sun07:09 · 103.2°12permit
Home (Bourbonnais, 60914)13 %Dshallow ground fogfiltered sun07:09 · 103.2°—unknown
Perry Farm Park12 %Dshallow ground fogfiltered sun07:09 · 103.2°5unknown
Island Park (Momence)17 %Dshallow ground fogovercast above the fog07:08 · 103.2°29unknown
Midewin National Tallgrass Prairie - Iron Bridge Trailhead14 %Dshallow ground fogovercast above the fog07:10 · 103.3°43allowed
Iroquois County State Wildlife Area13 %Fshallow ground fogovercast above the fog07:07 · 103.2°55permit
Bird Park — 16 %, shallow ground fog
where41.1213, -87.8792 · map lookriverfront + open field + mature trees; closest aerial option in Class G featuresriver, open field, treesaccessOpening time not stated. Page lists: "Park Closes At Dusk" droneunknown — no rule found; default is FAA recreational/Part 107 rules (<=400 ft AGL, visual line of sight, Class G needs no authorization) but unverified for this site airspaceKankakee Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) + Illinois Class E5; surface is Class G. KIKK 3.3 nm. Kankakee Airport (3KK) 2.0 nm. No UAS Facility Map grid. notesIn-town park (893 W. Station St., Kankakee). kvpd.com search for 'drone' returned a page with no match. Same Illinois (b-5) local-rule caveat as Perry Farm. suncivil dawn 06:40, sunrise 07:09 at 103.2°, beams 07:23–08:21, burn-off 07:39–08:24 est. riverriver water +9.9 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 3 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.75 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.2 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.5 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 17 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 12.5 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 4.9 °C vs afternoon dewpoint -0.9 °C → +5.8 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 13.1 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.7, ncep_nbm_conus 0.712, ecmwf_ifs025 0.577, icon_seamless 0.652 · spread 0.135

Kankakee Sands - Illinois (The Nature Conservancy) — 13 %, shallow ground fog
where41.0793, -87.6568 · map lookbest lone-tree savanna terrain for the ground frame; NO drone featuresoak savanna, prairie, lone trees, sand dunesaccess"Open sunrise to sunset, 365 days a year" droneprohibited — "Drones—aka personal aircraft, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV): Self-propelled or other aircraft are prohibited from taking off, landing or being operated on any TNC preserve except for official TNC purposes, approved research or in an emergency landing situation." source airspaceIllinois Class E5 only (floor 1200 ft AGL); surface is Class G. KIKK 8.6 nm. No UAS Facility Map grid. notesBest-fit terrain for the lone-tree-in-fog look from the ground, but drones are prohibited. TNC page: deer hunting allowed on many preserves from October through first week of January (blaze orange suggested). Not the same as Kankakee Sands-Indiana (Morocco) or the Will County FPD Kankakee Sands Preserve. suncivil dawn 06:39, sunrise 07:08 at 103.2°, beams 07:22–08:20, burn-off 07:38–08:23 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.33 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.3 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.7 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 15 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 11.7 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 4.8 °C vs afternoon dewpoint -0.2 °C → +5.0 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 15.5 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.573, ncep_nbm_conus 0.741, ecmwf_ifs025 0.548, icon_seamless 0.724 · spread 0.193

Momence Wetlands Nature Preserve — 19 %, shallow ground fog
where41.1643, -87.5542 · map lookfloodplain forest: treetops-in-fog aerial if authorized featuresriver, bottomland, floodplain forestaccessNone dronepermit — 17 Ill. Adm. Code 110.160(i): it is unlawful "Except in cases of emergency, for any person to land or attempt to land any aircraft on Department-owned, -leased or -managed property without prior authorization for each landing or attempted landing from the Department." No site-specific drone page found for this site. The wording says 'aircraft', not 'drone/unmanned', and does not name the superintendent; treat as authorization required until the site office says otherwise. source airspaceNo Class E polygon from the FAA data at this point; surface is Class G. KIKK 14.3 nm, Bult Field (C56) 14.1 nm. No UAS Facility Map grid. notesPage gives only directions: "From Momence, take Highway 114 east 6 miles to a county road. Turn north on this road and go 0.75 mile. The preserve is on the west side of the road." No parking, trail or hours stated. 17 Ill. Adm. Code 110.120(b) bars entry to a dedicated nature preserve where posted rules prohibit it. Contact listed: Site Superintendent, Iroquois County Conservation Area, 815-435-2218. suncivil dawn 06:39, sunrise 07:07 at 103.2°, beams 07:21–08:19, burn-off 08:07–09:07 est. riverriver water +10.4 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 3 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.91 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 0.8 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.4 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 0.97 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 22 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 12.0 °C
  • moisture: 0.20 — crossover: forecast night minimum 4.4 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 1.1 °C → +3.3 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 12.2 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.754, ncep_nbm_conus 0.742, ecmwf_ifs025 0.633, icon_seamless 0.705 · spread 0.121

Des Plaines State Fish and Wildlife Area — 20 %, shallow ground fog
where41.3720, -88.2070 · map lookbottomland + prairie + backwaters; over the 45-min line; Dresden station 3 nm featuresriver, bottomland, prairie, ponds, open fieldsaccessNone dronepermit — 17 Ill. Adm. Code 110.160(i): it is unlawful "Except in cases of emergency, for any person to land or attempt to land any aircraft on Department-owned, -leased or -managed property without prior authorization for each landing or attempted landing from the Department." No site-specific drone page found for this site. The wording says 'aircraft', not 'drone/unmanned', and does not name the superintendent; treat as authorization required until the site office says otherwise. source airspaceNo Class E polygon from the FAA data at this point; surface is Class G. Dresden Generating Station (nuclear) 3.0 nm, Braidwood 7.8 nm, KJOT 8.9 nm. FAA FDC 6/8818 advises avoiding airspace in close proximity to nuclear plants; no mapped hard restriction found. notesDrive estimate is just over the 45-minute target. Hunting is a main use (IDNR activities page has a hunting section; hunting-season dates not checked). IDNR: "Boat ramps are closed seasonally from the end of October for pheasant hunting season thru mid-April"; hand trap and archery ranges are "Closed during pheasant season." General daily hours not found; equestrian trail "6 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily" is trail-specific. suncivil dawn 06:42, sunrise 07:10 at 103.3°, beams 07:24–08:23, burn-off 08:10–09:10 est. riverriver water +8.6 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 3 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.70 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.3 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 2.7 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 0.82 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 33 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 10.8 °C
  • moisture: 0.37 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.2 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 4.0 °C → +2.2 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 13.4 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.686, ncep_nbm_conus 0.798, ecmwf_ifs025 0.59, icon_seamless 0.908 · spread 0.318

Kankakee River State Park — 14 %, shallow ground fog
where41.2030, -87.9790 · map lookriver steam fog in the valley; rim gives an elevated view over the fog (drone needs IDNR authorization) featuresriver, river-valley reliefaccessNo opening hours on the park page. Activities page: "Quiet hours are 10 p.m. to 7 a.m. Vehicle traffic is not allowed during quiet hours." dronepermit — 17 Ill. Adm. Code 110.160(i): it is unlawful "Except in cases of emergency, for any person to land or attempt to land any aircraft on Department-owned, -leased or -managed property without prior authorization for each landing or attempted landing from the Department." No site-specific drone page found for this site. The wording says 'aircraft', not 'drone/unmanned', and does not name the superintendent; treat as authorization required until the site office says otherwise. source airspaceIllinois Class E5 only (floor 1200 ft AGL); surface is Class G. KIKK 9.9 nm. Private strips nearby: Hawker (12IL) 1.7 nm, Classic Landings (05IL) 3.3 nm (OSM/FAA IDs). notesVehicle ban until 7:00 am means pre-sunrise access by car is not allowed; sunrise is roughly 7:00-7:10 am CDT now but about 6:20-6:40 am CST after Nov 1. Walk-in before 7 is not addressed on the page. Park office: 815-933-1383, Mon-Fri 8:00-3:30 (metal detecting permit text). Hunting seasons run in the park (archery deer, waterfowl, upland). suncivil dawn 06:40, sunrise 07:09 at 103.2°, beams 07:23–08:21, burn-off 07:39–08:24 est. riverriver water +9.2 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 4 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.44 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.9 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 4.2 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 0.93 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 26 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 12.3 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.6 °C vs afternoon dewpoint -1.1 °C → +6.8 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 14.4 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.596, ncep_nbm_conus 0.756, ecmwf_ifs025 0.548, icon_seamless 0.721 · spread 0.208

Home (Bourbonnais, 60914) — 13 %, shallow ground fog
where41.1530, -87.8790 · map featurescorn, tree lineaccessnot verified droneunknown — no rule found suncivil dawn 06:40, sunrise 07:09 at 103.2°, beams 07:23–08:21, burn-off 07:39–08:24 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.56 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.6 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.6 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 18 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 12.7 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.1 °C vs afternoon dewpoint -1.6 °C → +6.6 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 13.9 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.643, ncep_nbm_conus 0.662, ecmwf_ifs025 0.548, icon_seamless 0.652 · spread 0.114

Perry Farm Park — 12 %, shallow ground fog
where41.1457, -87.8849 · map lookbluff ~70 ft above the river: ground-level view DOWN onto river fog without a drone; pond and orchard for lone-tree frames featuresriver, river-valley relief, pond, orchard/farmsteadaccess"Hours of Operation: Dawn until Dusk, Year Round" droneunknown — no rule found; default is FAA recreational/Part 107 rules (<=400 ft AGL, visual line of sight, Class G needs no authorization) but unverified for this site airspaceKankakee Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) + Illinois Class E5; surface is Class G. KIKK 4.8 nm (inside the roughly 4-5 nm ring where a Class E surface area would sit, but FAA data shows no surface area). No UAS Facility Map grid. notesbtpd.org site search for 'drone' returns no results and the Rules and Regulations page has no aircraft clause. Illinois law (620 ILCS 5/42.1(b-5)) lets a park district adopt reasonable rules for airspace over its parkland, so call 815-933-9905 to confirm. Park coordinates are the OSM centroid, not the overlook. suncivil dawn 06:40, sunrise 07:09 at 103.2°, beams 07:23–08:21, burn-off 07:39–08:24 est. riverriver water +9.6 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 4 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.44 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.9 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.8 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 1.00 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 17 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 12.4 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 5.2 °C vs afternoon dewpoint -1.4 °C → +6.6 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 14.2 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.607, ncep_nbm_conus 0.664, ecmwf_ifs025 0.548, icon_seamless 0.652 · spread 0.116

Island Park (Momence) — 17 %, shallow ground fog
where41.1630, -87.6548 · map lookriver island, flat; steam fog over water featuresriver, island, flat terrainaccessNone droneunknown — no rule found; default is FAA recreational/Part 107 rules (<=400 ft AGL, visual line of sight, Class G needs no authorization) but unverified for this site airspaceNo Class E polygon from the FAA data at this point; surface is Class G. KIKK 10.3 nm, Bult Field (C56) 12.9 nm. No UAS Facility Map grid. notesTown-center park; no verified corn or tree-line view. No hours or drone rule on momence.org or momenceparkdistrict.org. visitkankakeecounty.com pages returned HTTP 403. suncivil dawn 06:39, sunrise 07:08 at 103.2°, beams 07:22–08:20, burn-off 08:08–09:08 est. riverriver water +10.2 °C warmer than the forecast dawn air (steam fog over open water needs roughly ≥5 °C and light wind; forecast wind 4 kt) rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.70 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.3 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.6 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 0.99 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 21 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 11.9 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 4.6 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 0.4 °C → +4.1 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 12.6 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.683, ncep_nbm_conus 0.754, ecmwf_ifs025 0.588, icon_seamless 0.724 · spread 0.166

Midewin National Tallgrass Prairie - Iron Bridge Trailhead — 14 %, shallow ground fog
where41.3789, -88.1231 · map lookdeep-bank aerial over prairie + tree rows; lone-tree shots from the trail featuresprairie, tree line, farmlandaccess"Visitors and trail users are welcome to the open areas of Midewin every day of the year from 4 am until 10 pm." (hiking page); trailhead page: "Trails: year-round, Mon - Sun, 4:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. (Closed on federal holidays)" droneallowed — Midewin links to the national FS page: "Individuals and organizations may fly UAS for hobby or recreational purposes"; "UAS must be flown below 400 feet"; "Keep your UAS away from populated and noise-sensitive areas, such as campgrounds, trail heads, and visitor centers." Midewin safety page: "Avoid Drone Use Near Bison". Forest Orders page: "Currently there are no active Forest Orders at Midewin National Tallgrass Prairie." No Midewin-specific filming/commercial permit rule found. source airspaceFAA Class_Airspace data: Chicago Class E5 (floor 700 ft AGL) + Illinois Class E5; surface is Class G. No UAS Facility Map grid. KJOT 8.7 nm, Dresden Generating Station 6.6 nm, Braidwood 9.4 nm. Not in any national-security UAS restriction layer. notesDrive time is an OSRM estimate. FS tips page cites Section 336 (outdated wording) and says to fly >=5 miles from an airport (KJOT is 8.7 nm away). Bison are present at Midewin; location of herd vs this trailhead not verified. suncivil dawn 06:41, sunrise 07:10 at 103.3°, beams 07:24–08:23, burn-off 08:10–09:10 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.52 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.7 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 4.3 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 0.83 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 33 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 10.6 °C
  • moisture: 0.10 — crossover: forecast night minimum 6.5 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 2.1 °C → +4.4 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 14.2 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.605, ncep_nbm_conus 0.739, ecmwf_ifs025 0.591, icon_seamless 0.719 · spread 0.148

Iroquois County State Wildlife Area — 13 %, shallow ground fog
where40.9940, -87.5990 · map looklone trees on sand ridges, marsh fog; over the 45-min line; hunting-season access limits featuresmarsh, sand ridges, savanna, prairie remnantaccessNone dronepermit — 17 Ill. Adm. Code 110.160(i): it is unlawful "Except in cases of emergency, for any person to land or attempt to land any aircraft on Department-owned, -leased or -managed property without prior authorization for each landing or attempted landing from the Department." No site-specific drone page found for this site. The wording says 'aircraft', not 'drone/unmanned', and does not name the superintendent; treat as authorization required until the site office says otherwise. source airspaceNo Class E polygon from the FAA data at this point; surface is Class G. KIKK 12.1 nm. No UAS Facility Map grid. notesOUTSIDE the 45-minute target (OSRM estimate 55 min) and kept because the terrain matches the lone-tree look. IDNR page: "The majority of the area, 2,000 acres, is managed as a public hunting area... Nonconsumptive recreation, in the form of hiking and nature study, is available when the facility is closed to hunting." Hunting seasons overlap Oct-Nov. IDNR: drones for any aspect of hunting are unlawful. Site office 815-435-2218. suncivil dawn 06:39, sunrise 07:07 at 103.2°, beams 07:21–08:19, burn-off 08:07–09:07 est. rain 48 h0.0 mm (Open-Meteo ICON assimilated past days (model analysis, not a gauge))
  • dewpoint depression: 0.44 — min T−Td in the 3 h before sunrise = 1.9 °C (≤1 °C strongly favours fog, >3 °C rarely fogs)
  • wind: 1.00 — mean 10 m wind in the 3 h before sunrise = 3.4 kt (2–5 kt ideal; calm gives only shallow fog; >8 kt mixes it out)
  • sky: 0.92 — overnight mid+high levels cloud = 26 % (clear sky lets the ground radiate and cool)
  • cooling: 1.00 — temperature fall 18:00 → sunrise = 12.6 °C
  • moisture: 0.30 — crossover: forecast night minimum 4.3 °C vs afternoon dewpoint 1.6 °C → +2.7 °C; rain last 48 h = 0.0 mm
  • model signal: 0.10 — model's own visibility minimum before sunrise = 14.8 km (0 h ≤ 1 km overnight)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.615, ncep_nbm_conus 0.689, ecmwf_ifs025 0.567, icon_seamless 0.693 · spread 0.126

Next 7 mornings

morningset-upbandlightT−Tdwind
Tue 20 Oct0.56marginalfiltered sun1.64 kt
Wed 21 Oct0.62decent set-upsun will reach the fog top2.44 kt
Thu 22 Oct0.62decent set-upsun will reach the fog top1.03 kt
Fri 23 Oct ★0.70decent set-upsun will reach the fog top0.35 kt
Sat 24 Oct0.57marginalovercast above the fog1.35 kt
Sun 25 Oct0.21poorovercast above the fog4.55 kt
Mon 26 Oct0.28poorovercast above the fog3.16 kt
morningset-upbandtypelightT−Td minwindmid+high cloudsunrisemodels
Tue 20 Oct0.56marginalshallow ground fogfiltered sun1.6 °C3.6 kt18 %07:09 · 103.2°5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.54
Wed 21 Oct0.62decent set-upshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top2.4 °C4.1 kt0 %07:10 · 103.7°5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.67
Thu 22 Oct0.62decent set-upshallow ground fogsun will reach the fog top1.0 °C2.9 kt0 %07:11 · 104.2°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.66
Fri 23 Oct ★0.70decent set-updeep fog banksun will reach the fog top0.3 °C4.7 kt0 %07:12 · 104.7°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.73
Sat 24 Oct0.57marginalshallow ground fogovercast above the fog1.3 °C5.4 kt60 %07:13 · 105.1°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.60
Sun 25 Oct0.21poorshallow ground fogovercast above the fog4.5 °C4.7 kt86 %07:14 · 105.6°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.56
Mon 26 Oct0.28poorshallow ground fogovercast above the fog3.1 °C5.6 kt100 %07:15 · 106.0°4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.36

outlook page with drivers and lead skill

Factors (HRRR, home)

per-model blend: gfs_hrrr 0.643, ncep_nbm_conus 0.662, ecmwf_ifs025 0.548, icon_seamless 0.652 · spread 0.114

Hourly, HRRR

localTTdT−Tdktlowmidhighvis km
21:0011.23.97.32.200028.5
22:0010.63.27.41.400029.3
23:009.73.26.51.900026.7
00:008.63.74.94.501022.3
01:007.74.13.64.124018.5
02:007.13.73.43.920018.2
03:006.53.72.84.120016.8
04:005.93.62.33.577015.1
05:005.43.42.04.21117014.1
06:005.33.71.62.914100114.0
07:005.13.31.83.71574013.9
08:005.74.31.43.0174013.4
09:009.74.35.42.200023.1
10:0013.45.67.83.100029.0
11:0016.56.310.23.100035.7

Independent checks

NBM bulletin for KIKK (cycle 2026-10-20T01:00:00+00:00, NOAA's own blend)

local°FTdktskyvis miP(vis<1)P(vis<3)cig
03:00433603510.03 %4 %-88
04:00423603810.03 %5 %-88
05:00413702810.04 %6 %-88
06:00413701710.04 %7 %-88
07:0040370410.05 %8 %-88
08:0043390110.05 %8 %-88
09:0050400110.03 %5 %-88

HRRR vertical profile at KIKK (run 2026-10-19 13:00; saturated depth = height to which T−Td ≤ 1 °C)

localsat. depthΔT 10→80 mlowest levels (m: T / Td)
03:000 m6.5 °C8: 7.5/3.6 · 33: 10.7/2.6 · 79: 14.0/0.7 · 159: 15.8/0.0
04:000 m6.3 °C8: 7.3/3.6 · 33: 11.3/2.3 · 79: 13.6/1.5 · 159: 15.0/0.1
05:000 m7.5 °C9: 7.0/3.5 · 33: 11.4/2.4 · 79: 14.5/1.6 · 159: 15.0/1.0
06:000 m7.6 °C9: 6.5/3.6 · 33: 10.7/2.3 · 79: 14.1/1.3 · 159: 15.2/1.2
07:000 m7.5 °C8: 5.5/3.5 · 33: 8.7/2.9 · 79: 13.0/1.3 · 158: 14.9/0.9
08:000 m7.3 °C8: 5.3/3.4 · 33: 8.1/3.1 · 78: 12.6/1.3 · 158: 14.7/1.0
09:000 m3.0 °C9: 8.4/4.0 · 34: 8.0/3.7 · 78: 11.4/1.7 · 159: 14.3/0.9

Right now at KIKK

METAR KIKK 200215Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM HZ CLR 08/05 A3037 RMK AO2 T00750050

Observed T−Td 2.5 °C vs HRRR for this hour 7.3 °C.

Rivers (USGS)

NWS forecast discussion 2026-10-19T23:15:00+00:00

- Shallow fog may develop in northeastern Illinois early Tuesday morning. Any fog would dissipate a few hours after sunrise.
The only item of note is a threat for shallow fog overnight into tomorrow morning near Lake Michigan where a modestly more moist environment will advect inland. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected the next 7 days with above to much above average temperatures each day. Generally light winds should allow weak lake breezes to form each of the next several afternoons, but probably only result in slightly cooler conditions right near the lake. Other than a bit of mid-high level cloudiness this afternoon, much of the week looks to be mostly sunny.
Light and variable winds (at times prevailing out of the east) will prevail through the TAF period. Shallow ground fog may develop in the vicinity of ORD/MDW early tomorrow morning (08-13Z timeframe). We have maintained the targeted TEMPO group for 1 1/2SM BR introduced in the 18z tafs. Otherwise, there are no aviation concerns through the TAF period.

Were you out there?

One tap at dawn. This is the only truth the tool gets from the field; the airport sensor cannot see a river bottom.

Verification so far

morningrunforecastgradeairport visairport fog?field reportcam
2026-10-16evening1 %F10.0 minono fog @ homeframe frame frame frame
2026-10-16predawn1 %F10.0 minono fog @ homeframe frame frame frame
2026-10-17evening3 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-17predawn6 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-18evening3 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-18predawn1 %F10.0 mino—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-19evening12 %D—pending—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-19predawn18 %C—pending—frame frame frame frame
2026-10-20evening13 %D—pending——

Honesty notes

dashboard · 7-day outlook · raw json